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DNV has released its 'Energy Transition Outlook', which notes that 2024 will go down as the year of peak energy emissions 

Energy-related emissions are at the cusp of a prolonged period of decline for the first time since the industrial revolution. Emissions are set to almost halve by 2050, but this is a long way short of requirements of the Paris Agreement. The Outlook forecasts the planet will warm by 2.2 °C by end of the century.

The peaking of emissions is largely due to plunging costs of solar and batteries which are accelerating the exit of coal from the energy mix and stunting the growth of oil. Annual solar installations increased 80% last year as it beat coal on cost in many regions. Cheaper batteries, which dropped 14% in cost last year, are also making the 24-hour delivery of solar power and electric vehicles more affordable. The uptake of oil was limited as electrical vehicles sales grew by 50%. In China, where both of these trends were especially pronounced, peak gasoline is now in the past.

China is dominating much of the global action on decarbonisation at present, particularly in the production and export of clean technology. It accounted for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new electrical vehicle purchases last year. And whilst it remains the world’s largest consumer of coal and emitter of CO2, its dependence on fossil fuels is set to fall rapidly as it continues to install solar and wind. China is the dominating exporter of green technologies although international tariffs are making their goods more expensive in some territories.

“Solar PV and batteries are driving the energy transition, growing even faster than we previously forecasted,” said Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV. “Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition. Worryingly, our forecasted decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In particular, the hard-to-electrify sectors need a renewed policy push.”

Striking shifts in energy mix

The success of solar and batteries is not replicated in the hard-to-abate sectors, where essential technologies are scaling slowly. DNV has revised the long-term forecast for hydrogen and its derivatives down by 20% (from 5% to 4% of final energy demand in 2050) since last year. And although DNV has revised up its carbon capture and storage forecast, only 2% of global emissions will be captured by CCS in 2040 and 6% in 2050. A global carbon price would accelerate the uptake of these technologies.

Wind remains an important driver of the energy transition, contributing to 28% of electricity generation by 2050. In the same timeframe, offshore wind will experience 12% annual growth rate although the current headwinds impacting the industry are weighing on growth.

Despite these challenges, the peaking of emissions is a sign that the energy transition is progressing. The energy mix is moving from a roughly 80/20 mix in favour of fossil fuels today, to one which is split equally between fossil and non-fossil fuels by 2050. In the same timeframe, electricity use will double, which is also at the driver of energy demand only increasing 10%.

“There is a growing mismatch between short term geopolitical and economic priorities versus the need to accelerate the energy transition. There is a compelling green dividend on offer which should give policymakers the courage to not only double down on renewable technologies, but to tackle the expensive and difficult hard-to-electrify sectors with firm resolve,” added Eriksen

The Outlook also examines the impact of artificial intelligence on the energy transition. AI will have a profound impact on many aspects of the energy system, particularly for the transmission and distribution of power. And although data points are currently sparse, DNV does not forecast that the energy footprint of AI will alter the overall direction of the transition. It will account for 2% of electricity demand by 2050.

*CO2 emissions from the combustion of coal, oil and gas

Shearwater Geoservices Holding AS has signed an ocean bottom node (OBN) project contract with TotalEnergies in Angola

The deepwater OBN survey will be conducted by the dual remotely operated vehicle (ROV)-equipped SW Tasman, the fit-for-purpose seismic node laying vessel which was converted in 2023, and SW Gallien as source vessel. A three-month-long operation approximately, the survey will commence in January 2025, with Shearwater deploying its compact high-endurance Pearl node in Block 32 over the Louro and Mostarda fields. The company has previously completed a 4D streamer survey in the region for TotalEnergies. 

TotalEnergies keeps cementing its presence in Angola as the major reached a US$6bn final investment decision (FID) on the Kaminho Deepwater Development in May, marking the first major deepwater development in the Kwanza Basin.

Introducing deepwater OBN

Shearwater CEO, Irene Waage Basili, said, "We are very satisfied with the performance of our SW Tasman/Pearl OBN platform which has been in continuous operation since its introduction last year. We are pleased to see one more key client use this unique platform to introduce deepwater OBN to new areas of their operations." 

Last month, the company has also secured a 4D seismic monitoring contract for the Jubilee field in Ghana, operated by Tullow Ghana Ltd.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while investment and projects in low-emissions hydrogen are increasing, policies to stimulate demand in key sectors are required to accelerate deployment

These are the findings published in the organisation’s Global Hydrogen Review 2024, an annual publication that tracks production and demand worldwide in a bid to inform energy stakeholders on the status and future prospects of low-emissions hydrogen.

The research shows that a wave of new projects indicates the growing momentum around low-emissions hydrogen despite challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, persistent cost pressures, and a lack of incentives to accelerate demand from potential consumers. In the last 12 months, the number of projects that have reached final investment decision has doubled – this would increase today’s global production of low-emissions hydrogen fivefold by 2030. The total electrolyser capacity has reached final investment decision now stands at 20GW globally.

However, the IEA reports hesitancy from developers due to a lack of clarity on government support before making investments. As a result, most potential projects are still in planning or early-stage development, and some larger projects face delays or cancellations.

“The growth in new projects suggests strong investor interest in developing low-emissions hydrogen production, which could play a critical role in reducing emissions from industrial sectors such as steel, refining and chemicals,” remarked IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “But for these projects to be a success, low-emissions hydrogen producers need buyers. Policymakers and developers must look carefully at the tools for supporting demand creation while also reducing costs and ensuring clear regulations are in place that will support further investment in the sector.”

Hydrogen demand against production

Further key findings from the report include a notable gap between government goals for production and demand. According to the research, production targets set by governments add up to as much as 43mn tonnes per year by 2030, but demand targets only total 11mn tonnes by 2030. While some government policies are already in place to stimulate demand, the progress made in the hydrogen sector so far is not sufficient to meet climate goals.

Moreover, as a nascent sector, low-emissions hydrogen still faces technology and production cost pressures, with electrolysers in particular slipping back on some of their past progress due to higher prices and tight supply chains. A continuation of cost reductions relies on technology development, but also optimising deployment processes and moving to mass manufacturing to achieve economies of scale.
Cost reductions will benefit all projects, but the impact on the competitiveness of individual projects will vary. Industrial hubs – where low-emissions hydrogen could replace the existing large demand for hydrogen that is currently met by production from unabated fossil fuels – remain an important untapped opportunity by governments to stimulate demand, according to the IEA.

Hydrogen potential in emerging markets

Regarding emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), the report notes that such regions (particularly Africa and Latin America) hold significant potential for low-cost, low-emissions hydrogen production.

To unlock this potential, the IEA advises, governments of advanced economies and multilateral development banks should look to provide targeted support such as grants and concessional financing in order to address key challenges that are inhibiting project developers in these countries – most notably, around financing. Developing these projects, the research reports, can help cover domestic needs, reduce import dependencies and potentially enable the export of hydrogen or hydrogen-based products.

At AOW: Investing in African Energy held in Cape Town form 7-10 October, a dedicated panel discussion considered how the continent can secure its future in a changing landscape

Specifically, the session was dedicated to the role of gas, with the pipeline of associated projects in the continent never being stronger. However, if Africa is to be competitive in a dynamic international gas market, it must ensure that it offers value. This means shaping an offer that meets the financial and environmental sustainability of stakeholders; gas investment propositions must be relevant and future-proof or global capital will not be forthcoming.

“Natural gas is at the centre of what we are doing in Africa,” commented Mario Bello, head of sub-Saharan Africa region at Eni. “It’s the cleanest fossil fuel, producing fewer emissions than coal, so it plays an important role as we transition to renewables… Floating LNG is the key to unlocking the region’s gas potential, making it easier and faster to develop offshore resources.”

A stable investment environment

Meanwhile, Paul Eardley-Taylor, head of oil & gas, southern Africa at Standard Bank, considered the financing challenge that remains a significant hurdle for projects. He emphasised the need for bankable projects that address investor concerns, particularly around sovereign risk. He also drew attention to the transformative potential of large-scale LNG projects and smaller, domestically-focused gas ventures, labelling the impact they could have in African markets “incalculable”.

Stressing the importance of a stable investment climate to attract international capital, Equinor’s senior vice president for Africa, Nina Birgitte Koch, said, “CO2 is the key criteria. It’s not just a ‘nice to have’ any more. I don’t think it’s possible to get capital to a big LNG project unless it’s highly competitive when it comes to CO2."

Tshepo Mokoka, Group COO of South Africa’s Central Energy Fund (CEF), raised the call for government intervention to address market failures and unlock investment. He outlined CEF's role in enabling critical gas infrastructure projects, such as the Romp pipeline and LNG import terminals. “We need to solve the market failure,” Mokoka surmised, highlighting the need for government-backed gas offtake agreements and risk-sharing mechanisms to attract private capital.

ExxonMobil’s executive director global, LNG marketing, Deri Irawan, emphasised the importance of a holistic approach to project development, considering not just the technical and economic aspects but also the social and political landscape. He commented on the need for strong partnerships and stakeholder engagement to ensure long-term project success. “It is insufficient to just bring a commodity to the doorstep. You also need to unlock that value chain.”

Gianluca Ciricugno, Africa director, enterprise customer solution at Baker Hughes, took the opportunity to stress the need for a long-term vision and collaboration between governments, investors, and technology providers. He urged, “It requires a broader vision, probably government and all the people around the table, with a long-term approach… and not just four-year terms.”

TotalEnergies and the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Ltd has reached a final investment decision (FID) for the development of the Ubeta gas field 

Located about 80 km northwest of Port Harcourt in Rivers state, the Ubeta gas field falls under OML 58 onshore license which is operated by TotalEnergies with a 40% interest while NNPC holds the other 60%. 

The development plan includes the installation of a 11 km buried pipeline to connect Ubeta's new six-well cluster to the existing Obite facilities, thus allowing emissions reduction and cost efficiency. A 5 MW solar plant is currently under construction at Obite to further alleviate carbon intensity. A completely electrified drilling rig will be deployed for production which is due to start in 2027.

During COP28, TotalEnergies signed an agreement with NNPCL among other African oil companies to deploy its advanced drone-based technology AUSEA on oil & gas facilities in Nigeria, and soon after, an inspection of OML 100 field in south-eastern Niger Delta confirmed that their joint venture has achieved zero routine gas flaring across all its assets, including OML 58. 

Favourable government initiatives

While things are looking up in terms of sustainable practices, Nigeria is also focusing on production optimisation, and its recent collaboration with SLB testifies this approach. 

The Ubeta field capacity is expected at approximately 70,000 bopd including condensates. The Obagi oil field and the Ibewa gas and condensate field that also belong within OML 58 are currently in production. The gas yield is processed in the Obite treatment centre for supply to the Nigerian domestic gas market as well as Nigeria LNG (NLNG) plant. 

TotalEnergies owns a 15% interest in NLNG, which is a liquefaction plant in Bonny Island, with an on-going capacity expansion from 22-30 Mtpa. 

With more than 90% of manhours to be worked locally, the major, along with NNPCL, is aiming to enhance local content.

“Ubeta is the latest in a series of projects developed by TotalEnergies in Nigeria, most recently Ikike and Akpo West. I am pleased that we can launch this new gas project which has been made possible by the Government’s recent incentives for non-associated gas developments. Ubeta fits perfectly with our strategy of developing low-cost and low-emission projects, and will contribute to the Nigerian economy through higher NLNG exports,” said Mike Sangster, senior vice president - Africa, exploration and production at TotalEnergies.

Artificial intelligence solutions providers AIQ and Inception have signed an agreement to drive technology innovation and transformation in the energy sector

Announced at GITEX Global 2024 in Dubai, the partnership will aim to enhance efficiency, improve safety and sustainability, and reduce costs through revolutionary near-real time data processing, advanced multi-modal insights, and AI-assisted automation across the entire energy value chain.

“Joining forces with Inception in this strategic partnership will see AIQ unlock new opportunities for growth and transformation in the Energy sector, pushing the boundaries of AI innovation and driving real, impactful change,” said Magzhan Kenesbai, acting managing director at AIQ. “This collaboration is testament to our commitment to enhancing productivity and sustainability, while reinforcing the UAE’s position as a global hub for technological excellence.”

Ashish Koshy, chief operating officer of Inception, said, “Our partnership with AIQ marks a defining moment in how artificial intelligence combined with domain expertise can accelerate innovation in the Energy sector. By combining our expertise in large language and advanced AI models with AIQ’s industry expertise and proven track record in the Energy sector, we are confident that together we will deliver solutions that will set new standards for operational excellence, efficiency, and sustainability. Our partnership with AIQ marks a defining moment in how artificial intelligence can accelerate innovation in the energy sector.”

The collaboration will focus on leveraging advanced technologies that enable faster decision-making and improve real-time data processing capabilities, empowering the energy sector to navigate the complexities and demands of operations with greater intelligence and agility. As part of the agreement, both companies will also explore opportunities to enhance AI models and accelerate the deployment of AI solutions across the energy value chain.