Will Africa emerge as a major refinery hub?
Africa’s refining landscape is diverging.
Africa’s refining landscape is entering one of its most consequential periods in decades
Across the continent, governments and investors are pursuing sharply different paths. While some are building new mega refineries, others are rehabilitating ageing assets, and several have shut down or abandoned refining altogether. The result is a fragmented energy security map in which a handful of states are moving toward product independence while others are becoming more vulnerable to global supply shocks.
This divergence raises a central question for Africa’s energy future: how will these refinery outcomes reshape regional product flows, commercial stability and long-term energy security?
Refinery revival model in Nigeria
No country illustrates the scale of Africa’s refining ambitions more clearly than Nigeria. After decades of dependence on imported refined products, the country is now positioned to become a regional product hub.
The Dangote effect
The Dangote Refinery -- Africa’s largest -- marks a structural shift in West Africa’s energy landscape. Designed to process hundreds of thousands of barrels per day, it has the potential to:
∙ Significantly reduce Nigeria’s import bill
∙ Stabilise domestic fuel supply
∙ Create export opportunities to Ghana, Togo, Benin, Cameroon and beyond
∙ Ease pressure on foreign exchange markets
Even partial operationalisation has already altered expectations across the region.
Port Harcourt rehabilitation
Alongside Dangote, the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt refinery signals a renewed commitment to restoring legacy capacity. While timelines have shifted, the project remains symbolically and strategically important. If successful, it will complement Dangote by providing additional domestic supply and reducing reliance on imported products.
Strategic impact
Nigeria is moving from a position of chronic import dependence toward potential net exporter status. This shift could reshape West African product flows and strengthen regional energy security -- provided operational stability is achieved.
Incremental expansion and rehabilitation in Angola
Angola represents a quieter but equally important refinery story. As one of Africa’s major crude producers, its reliance on imported refined products has long been a structural contradiction.
Upgrading existing capacity
Angola has invested in upgrading its existing refining infrastructure to improve efficiency and expand output. These efforts aim to reduce import dependence and stabilise domestic supply.
New projects in development
The government has also advanced plans for new refining capacity, seeking to diversify its downstream sector and capture more value domestically.
Strategic impact
Angola’s incremental approach is gradually strengthening its energy security. While not transformative on the scale of Nigeria, it represents a steady move toward greater self sufficiency and reduced exposure to global price volatility.
Refineries closing in South Africa
South Africa offers a stark contrast. Once home to several major refineries, the country has seen its domestic refining capacity collapse.
Import dependency
By 2022–2023, all major crude refineries -- including Sapref, Enref and PetroSA’s Mossel Bay plant -- were shut or mothballed. The result is a country of South Africa’s economic size relying almost entirely on imported refined products.
Economic and infrastructure consequences
The impact has been significant:
∙ Aviation fuel shortages
∙ Bitumen shortages affecting construction
∙ Price volatility across petrol and diesel markets
∙ Heightened vulnerability to global shipping disruptions, including Red Sea tensions
Strategic impact
South Africa’s experience underscores the risks of losing domestic refining capacity. It highlights why refinery revival efforts elsewhere in Africa carry strategic weight.
Uganda's refinery story
Uganda provides a different kind of refinery story -- one shaped by geopolitics, financing pressures and environmental concerns.
The abandoned Lake Albert refinery
Uganda initially planned a refinery in the Lake Albert region to process its crude domestically. Despite years of negotiation, the project stalled due to:
∙ Financing challenges
∙ Investor withdrawal
- Geopolitical pressures
- Shifting commercial priorities
Pivot to the EACOP pipeline
Instead of a refinery, Uganda pivoted to the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) through Tanzania. The pipeline is:
∙ More costly financially
- More environmentally sensitive
- Socially disruptive with displacement and resettlement challenges
- Still leaving Uganda dependent on imported refined products
Strategic impact
Uganda’s case shows how refinery failure can lead to long-term energy insecurity. It also illustrates how geopolitical and financial dynamics shape infrastructure outcomes across Africa.
Regional energy security
The combined effect of these refinery trajectories is a reshaped continental energy landscape.
West Africa
Nigeria’s refinery revival could stabilise regional product supply and reduce reliance on European imports. If successful, it may become the anchor of West Africa’s product market.
Southern Africa
South Africa’s refinery collapse has created regional vulnerability, with neighbouring states exposed to supply disruptions and price swings.
East Africa
Uganda’s pipeline strategy increases crude export potential but does not address product security. Kenya’s earlier refinery closure adds to regional import dependence.
North Africa
Countries like Egypt, Algeria and Morocco continue to upgrade and expand refining capacity, maintaining a more stable downstream environment.
Commercial, geopolitical and social implications
Commercial
∙ Domestic refining reduces import bills
∙ FX pressures ease when product imports decline
- Pricing reforms become more politically manageable
- Investment flows shift toward downstream infrastructure
Geopolitical
- International investors from the West, Middle East and China shape project outcomes
- Regional competition for product markets intensifies
- Maritime security risks influence supply chains
Social and environmental
- Refinery projects create employment and industrial development
- Pipeline projects raise displacement and environmental concerns
- Communities experience both benefits and burdens of energy infrastructure
Africa’s refining future
Africa’s refining landscape is diverging, not converging. Some states are building resilience through new or rehabilitated refineries, while others are becoming more dependent on imported products. The next decade will determine whether the continent emerges as a regional refining hub or remains vulnerable to external supply shocks.
What is clear is that refinery decisions made today will shape Africa’s energy sovereignty for decades to come.
The article has been written by Elijah Paul RukidiMpuuga, FCIArb (UK), founder and principal, Equitas Dispute Resolution Group, LLC
