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The escalating confrontation between the United States, Israel and Iran has introduced a new phase of geopolitical uncertainty into global energy markets

While the immediate focus remains on security implications in the Middle East, the commercial and operational consequences for Africa’s oil, gas and energy sectors are both significant and far-reaching. As global supply chains absorb the shock of rising tensions, African producers, exporters, importdependent states, and emerging energy markets are confronting a rapidly shifting landscape.

Africa’s energy systems are deeply interconnected with global markets. Crude exports, LNG flows, refinery feedstock, maritime transport and downstream pricing all depend on stable international conditions. When geopolitical volatility disrupts these conditions, the effects cascade across the continent’s upstream, midstream and downstream operations.

Oil price volatility and supply side uncertainty

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has injected renewed volatility into global oil markets. Brent crude prices have experienced sharp fluctuations driven by fears of supply disruption, potential sanctions and the risk of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz – a corridor through which roughly one fifth of global oil supply transits.

For established African producers and exporters – Nigeria, Angola, Libya, Algeria, Egypt, the Republic of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea and South Sudan – price volatility presents both opportunity and risk. Higher prices may boost short-term revenues, but instability complicates:

∙ fiscal planning

∙ production scheduling

∙ investment decisions

∙ long-term project financing

South Sudan is particularly vulnerable. Although it produces the crude, it relies entirely on Sudan for pipeline transit, refining and export through Port Sudan. Any geopolitical shock that affects global prices or regional stability amplifies the fragility of this arrangement already impacted by the internal conflict in Sudan.

For import-dependent African economies – Kenya, Uganda (until production begins), Rwanda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Senegal, Ghana, and South Africa – price spikes translate into:

∙ higher fuel import bills

∙ inflationary pressure

∙ increased subsidy burdens

∙ downstream pricing instability

The conflict has therefore widened the divergence between Africa’s energy exporters and importers, with both groups facing heightened commercial risk.

LNG shipping disruptions and maritime chokepoints

The Red Sea, Bab elMandeb, and the Strait of Hormuz remain critical arteries for global LNG and petroleum shipments. Rising tensions have led to:

∙ vessel diversions

∙ increased war risk insurance premiums

∙ longer shipping times

∙ higher freight costs

∙ rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope

For African LNG exporters – notably Algeria, Egypt and Mozambique – these disruptions affect:

∙ delivery schedules

∙ contract performance

∙ shipping economics

∙ buyer confidence

Mozambique, in particular, is emerging as a major LNG player. Its offshore reserves position it as a future global supplier, but project timelines and financing conditions are highly sensitive to global LNG market volatility. Any instability in shipping routes or pricing affects investor appetite and project momentum.

For LNG importing markets in North and East Africa, rerouting adds cost and uncertainty to already tight supply chains, affecting power generation, industrial output and domestic energy security.

Infrastructure and upstream project risk

Energy infrastructure across Africa – pipelines, refineries, offshore platforms, LNG terminals and power generation assets – is highly sensitive to global market conditions.

The current geopolitical environment has intensified:

∙ EPC contract renegotiations

∙ project delays

∙ cost escalations

∙ supplychain bottlenecks

∙ financing challenges

Upstream investment decisions are being recalibrated as international oil companies (IOCs) and national oil companies (NOCs) reassess:

∙ fluctuating price decks

∙ higher insurance premiums

∙ sanctions exposure

∙ shipping and logistics risk

Emerging producers such as Uganda, Namibia and Ghana are particularly exposed.

∙ Uganda’s Tilenga and Kingfisher projects, along with the EACOP pipeline, depend on stable financing and predictable price environments.

∙ Namibia’s offshore discoveries have generated global excitement, but long-term development decisions hinge on market stability.

∙ Ghana, while already producing, remains sensitive to price swings and relies heavily on imported refined products.

These countries illustrate how geopolitical conflict affects not only current production but also Africa’s future energy trajectory.

Commercial and contractual pressure across the value chain

The combination of price volatility, shipping disruptions and project delays has increased contractual tension across the African energy sector. Key areas of pressure include:

∙ crude supply agreements

∙ LNG offtake contracts

∙ pipeline transportation agreements

∙ refinery feedstock contracts

∙ EPC and O&M contracts

∙ charter party and shipping arrangements

Force majeure claims, renegotiation requests and performance disputes are to become more common as parties struggle to meet obligations under rapidly changing conditions.

This is where commercial risk management becomes essential.

Why ADR is becoming critical in Africa’s energy sector

In a period of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, effective, neutral dispute resolution capacity is no longer optional – it is a strategic necessity.

Energy disputes often involve:

∙ crossborder parties

∙ complex technical issues

∙ high value contracts

∙ time sensitive operations

∙ confidentiality requirements

Alternative Dispute Resolution – particularly arbitration, mediation and expert determination – offers:

∙ neutrality

∙ enforceability

∙ sector-specific expertise

∙ procedural flexibility

∙ continuity of commercial relationships

As global conflict continues to reshape commercial risk, African energy companies, investors and governments increasingly require dispute resolution professionals who understand both the geopolitical landscape and the operational realities of the oil and gas sector.

Africa’s energy future in a volatile world

The US-Israel-Iran conflict has underscored a fundamental truth: Africa’s energy markets are deeply exposed to global geopolitical shocks. From upstream investment to LNG shipping, refinery operations and downstream pricing, the continent’s oil and gas sector must navigate a more volatile and interconnected world.

For African producers, importers and infrastructure operators, resilience will depend on:

∙ robust commercial risk management

∙ flexible contracting strategies

∙ diversified supply chains

∙ and access to principled, neutral dispute resolution mechanisms

In this environment, the ability to anticipate disruption – and resolve disputes efficiently when they arise – will be essential to sustaining Africa’s energy growth and stability.

The article has been written by Elijah Paul RukidiMpuuga, FCIArb​, International arbitrator and founder, Equitas Dispute Resolution Group 

Energy data and intelligence provider, TGS, has announced the Ultra Profundo multi-client 2D survey offshore Angola

The survey spans approximately 12,600 line kilometers, and Ramform Victory began operations earlier in Q1. Data acquisition is likely to be completed in around 100 days, with fast-track products available in Q3. Full data processing is scheduled for completion in Q2 2027.

The Ultra Profundo multi-client 2D survey marks the first 2D multi-client acquisition over Angola’s ultra deep-water areas since 2015 and aims to reach previously underexplored region. The survey delivers modern, long-offset seismic data critical for imaging complex pre-salt and top-salt structures as well as basin floor channel systems, significantly enhancing regional geological understanding.

Kristian Johansen, CEO of TGS, said, “Angola’s ultra deep-water margin represents one of the most exciting frontier exploration opportunities in West Africa. Our Ultra Profundo multi-client 2D program delivers high-quality seismic coverage needed to unlock pre-salt and sub-salt potential. By leveraging TGS’ acquisition and imaging capabilities, we will provide high-quality data supporting future exploration activities.”

With all reservoir and operations risks for 2026 considered, Tullow Oil is aiming an average production rate of 34-42 kboepd, including 6 kboepd of gas 

In 2025, Ntomme and Enyenra performance from TEN led the field's total production count at 16.0 kbopd, while the exit rate from Jubilee stood at 57 kbopd. 

The company will be deploying riser system and riser-base gas lift for well production management activities, and waterflood and fluid lift optimisation. These, along with the support of high-uptime FPSO, five planned Jubilee wells (four producers and one water injector) are expected onstream this year. The J75-P, for instance -- where a rig has been active for drilling -- has recorded three good reservoir intervals. 

The recently completed J74-P well is already onstream since January, revealing 50 meters of net pay while generating an initial gross production through the wellbore at 13 kbopd. 

The well management measures align with findings from 4D seismic and Ocean Bottom Node seismic surveys to leverage significant reservoir information extracted. 

Tullow has made a strategic investment to acquire the TEN FPSO as it will simplify operational synergies between the TEN and Jubilee fields, maximising output in the long term with minimal expenses. The company has already secured 10-year and 14-year-long ratifications on the West Cape Three Points and Deep Water Tano Petroleum Agreements.

Ian Perks, chief executive officer, Tullow Oil Plc, said, “2025 has been a year of disciplined execution across the business. This includes strong operational momentum which continues with excellent results from the latest Jubilee well and a further five wells due onstream this year to support our production targets. We have achieved significant cost reductions and completed the sale of non-core assets in our ongoing efforts to streamline our portfolio and strengthen our financial position.

“However our 2025 full year free cashflow was negatively impacted by the commodity price environment towards the end of the year and delays in receipt of Government of Ghana receivables and the second instalment of proceeds from the Kenya disposal.

“The refinancing transaction we have announced today enables us to focus on delivering our near-term priorities, which include driving further cost efficiencies, improving cashflow management and optimising our production."

Equatorial Guinea's national oil company, GEPetrol, has secured a heads of agreement (HoA) with American oil major, Chevron, pushing its stake in Block I's Aseng Gas Project from 5% to a whopping 32.55%

This means a big break for the country, which came following months of negotiation since the Vice President, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue's visit to the United States last year. 

The partnership will go a long way in well establishing the country's stronghold on its natural resources, and leveraging Aseng output, as the single field is potential of determining several downstream and upstream developments under the Extended Gas Mega Hub initiative. Alongside big projects like Alen Tail and Yoyo-Yolanda, it also unlocks access for GEPetrol in Chevron-operated blocks and potential cross-border gas flows through Gulf of Guinea pipeline infrastructure.

The agreement further ensures for GEPetrol long-term gas supply to the Punta Europa complex that will help sustain existing LNG and processing infrastructure by improving cost efficiency and reducing stranded gas. As a gas monetisation hub, this will give the Equatorial Guinea an extra edge in the global commodities market, where LNG demand continues to gain prominence. 

“This agreement represents a strategic step forward for our energy sector, enhancing national participation and opening the door for further projects that will drive industrial development, create jobs and strengthen energy security for our country and the region,” said Antonio Oburu Ondo, Minister of Hydrocarbons and Mining Development of Equatorial Guinea, following the signing of the agreement at the People’s Palace in Malabo, where senior government officials, Chevron executives and the United States Ambassador were also present. 

The collaboration shows Chevron's reliance on Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas industry as well as its willingness for regional integration. The major is ready to support maximum state participation, with a greater emphasis on capacity building, knowledge transfer and local workforce development, to establish mutual opportunities from the country's broader Gas Mega Hub. This also reflects Equatorial Guinea's investors-friendly policies, which are adaptive to flexible financial solutions. 

Alongside Aseng-operator, Chevron, and GEPetrol, the project also includes Glencore and Gunvor.

As the Uganda National Oil Company aims to build a crude refinery, it has reached out to a unit of global commodities trader, Vitol, for a US$2bn loan to support the project alongside construction and infrastructure developments

According to Henry Musasizi, Uganda's junior finance minister, this seven-year tenor loan from Vitol Bahrain EC (VBA) comes with an interest rate of 4.92%. The minister worked on advancing the approval process for the credit line and the loan, which involved significant lawmakers, who sanctioned the development with a majority verdict.

Musasizi said that Vitol's support "presents an opportunity to access non-traditional financing to implement. ..projects and support the government in developing national infrastructure."  

Vitol Bahrain EC has a long-standing presence in Uganda's downstream sector, functioning as the sole supplier of refined petroleum products to UNOC, before the state-owned company sells it to retailers across the country.

Alongside the refinery, the loan amount will also be covering road construction, a petroleum products storage terminal and extension of a petroleum pipeline from western Kenya to Uganda's capital Kampala.

Previously, the UNOC also concluded a deal with the UAE-based Alpha MBM Investments, whereby a domestic refinery with a capacity of 60,000 barrels per day is in the pipeline. The agreement accords 60% stake on the refinery to the UAE firm while UNOC retains 40%.

Uganda is looking to begin commercial oil generation starting next year from fields in its west.

Oil Review Africa catches up with Christopher Hudson, President of dmg events, ahead of ADIPEC 2025

Excerpts from an interview: 

Energy across Africa, as elsewhere in the world, is seeing major shifts and advancements. How does ADIPEC 2025 reflect this changing industry landscape and help meet the needs? 

Energy is one of the most dynamic and rapidly evolving sectors. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy demand rose by 2.2% last year, outpacing the average annual increase of 1.3% recorded over the last decade. At the same time, the global population is projected to reach 9.8 billion by 2050, with over 750 million people still lacking access to electricity, and more than 2.1 billion people remain without access to clean cooking. Rising urbanisation and living standards are reshaping energy demand, with air conditioning alone expected to be one of the largest contributors to electricity demand growth in the coming decades. This reveals the sector’s increasing need to not only produce more energy but to produce it in a way that is equitable and sustainable.

In this context, ADIPEC 2025 is being held under the theme of ‘Energy. Intelligence. Impact’. It reflects a simple but powerful truth: meeting the world’s growing need for secure, affordable and sustainable energy will depend on how intelligently we harness every resource – human, technological and natural – to deliver meaningful results for economies and communities alike.

At its core, the theme recognises that intelligence – both human and artificial – is transforming the way energy is produced, managed, and consumed. From AI-driven optimisation and digital integration to advances in hydrogen, LNG, and decarbonisation, intelligent innovation is reshaping the global energy landscape. ADIPEC serves as the meeting point for these forces, where ideas translate into action and impact can be measured in investment, policy, and progress.

AI is a major topic of discussion in the context of energy, due to its high demand. How is ADIPEC responding to the challenges and opportunities of the AI-energy nexus? 

Artificial intelligence is reshaping both global energy demand and the industry’s ability to respond. Data centres already consume around 1.5% of global electricity, and with AI workloads, that demand could more than double by 2030, rising from 415 TWh to 945 TWh. A single advanced AI model can require as much electricity to train as 100 households use in a year, while an AI query may consume 10 times more energy than a standard search.

This convergence is both a challenge and an opportunity. AI requires enormous energy, but it can also optimise grids, cut waste, improve operational efficiency, and accelerate decarbonisation. At ADIPEC 2025, we have expanded our AI Zone into five experiential areas showcasing how AI is transforming systems, people, and infrastructure. Alongside this, more than 80 conference sessions are dedicated to the AI–energy nexus, from predictive analytics to governance frameworks.

For Africa, this is particularly significant. Many countries are rapidly digitalising while also expanding power systems. The ability of AI to enhance reliability and reduce costs could be transformative for energy access and economic growth.

How is the diversity of the African continent and its vast energy sector reflected across ADIPEC 2025’s programme? 

Africa is a core part of ADIPEC’s community. This year, we are proud to welcome a strong delegation of African ministers and leaders, including those from Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gambia, Equatorial Guinea, and Egypt. Their participation enriches ADIPEC’s Strategic Conference and exhibitions, ensuring Africa’s perspectives are reflected in discussions on natural gas, hydrogen, downstream, and low-carbon solutions.

dmg events is also the largest organiser of energy and infrastructure events across Africa, with long-standing operations in Nigeria, Mozambique, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, South Africa, Egypt and Morocco. This presence gives us a unique vantage point to bridge African priorities with global dialogue.

Africa holds some of the world’s largest reserves of natural gas, oil, and minerals, as well as enormous potential in renewables. ADIPEC is committed to supporting this potential by convening African voices alongside global leaders, unlocking partnerships that can expand access, accelerate industrialisation, and strengthen Africa’s contribution to global energy progress.

Some of ADIPEC 2025’s notable African speakers include: Honourable J. Opiyo Wandayi, Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum, Kenya; Honourable Sen. Dr. Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister for State (Oil), Petroleum Resources, Nigeria; Rt. Honourable Ekperikpe Ekpo, Minister for State (Gas) Petroleum Resources, Nigeria; Honourable Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, Nigeria; Honourable Julius D. Mattai, Minister of Mines and Mineral Resources, Republic of Sierra Leone; Honourable Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Uganda; His Excellency Karim Badawi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Arab Republic of Egypt; His Excellency Antonio Oburu Ondo, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons, Equatorial Guinea, Honorable Julius D. Mattai, Minister of Mines and Mineral Resources, Republic of Sierra Leonne; Honourable July Moyo, Minister of Energy and Power Development, Zimbabwe; His Excellency Nani Juwara, Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Gambia; Honourable Cheikh Niane, Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Senegal, and Mathias Katamba, board chairman, Uganda National Oil Company.