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The oil price has risen further with the escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran, with Brent crude standing at around US$86/bbl on Tuesday 14 July

Recent days have seen renewed US attacks on Iranian infrastructure, and Iranian attacks on US bases in the region as well as ships and oil tankers, along with President Trump’s announcement of a 20% fee on cargo transiting the Strait and a renewed blockade of Iranian ports.

Brent crude had fallen to around US$70/bbl earlier this month following the announcement of the ceasefire, and the IEA had predicted in its July monthly oil market report that the market could return to surplus by the end of the year. This prediction looks to have been upended by recent events, with the risk to disruption to shipping once again raising the prospect of supply shortages.

“The escalation disrupts global energy supplies, with a near halt in ship navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and heightens the risk of further escalation, including targeting oil production and refining infrastructure in the region, which could make the damage structural rather than temporary,” noted Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com. “…we saw widespread targeting of the Iranian mainland and islands and targeting of American bases at several points in the region, in addition to targeting ships and oil tankers, and these events are still recurring until the time of writing. To make matters worse, we saw an unexpected and sudden return of escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen.

“With this stormy series of events, we must calmly rearrange our hypotheses. I believe we are now in a round of negotiating under fire, following the failure at the table after the signing of the recent memorandum of understanding. The major obstacle lay in reaching an understanding regarding the implementation of the fifth article of the signed memorandum of understanding, which concerns the management of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“The latest developments have shifted market focus from oversupply concerns to the risk of prolonged disruptions to Gulf energy exports, with the duration of US enforcement measures and the security of Hormuz now likely to determine whether oil prices remain elevated,” commented MUFG Research.

Crispus Nyaga, research analyst at Empire FX, said, “Looking ahead, prices could extend their climb, potentially nearing previous highs, should shipping through the Strait of Hormuz come under severe restrictions and regional security deteriorate further. However, efforts by Gulf oil exporters to circumvent the waterway could help ease the upside pressure to some extent. A return to diplomatic talks and a formal end to military operations could support a recovery in maritime traffic, allowing energy exports to normalise and prices to ease gradually, although this scenario could remain unlikely over the short term.”

Tolls in the Strait now look impossible to avoid, commented deVere Group’s CEO Nigel Green. “Investors keep treating Hormuz disruption as a spike that fades once the fighting stops. This time, for me, looks different,” he said.

“Once a toll exists in practice, taking it away again becomes its own political fight. I would price this as a permanent cost of moving global energy, not a headline that blows over.”

Viridien has started a seismic reimaging project in the Tano Basin, Ivory Coast, called CDI25, which explorers can refer to as a drill-ready multi-client dataset to unlock opportunities along the West African Atlantic margin

Viridien has been active in the Ivory Coast since the last four years, and CDI25 comes as an upgrade to this longstanding subsurface reimaging programme. With the deployment of digital processing and imaging workflows, including Ghost Wavefield Elimination, advanced de-multiple, and Time-Lag Full-Waveform Inversion will help deliver high bandwidth, enhanced deep imaging and sharp structural and stratigraphic details.

Covering an area of 6,555 sq km, the fast-track CDI25 results are expected by Q4 2026, before final deliverables by Q2 2027. Once out in the market, explorers will be able to access a seamless, basin-scale 3D seismic volume across 16,000 sq km of the Tano Basin.

With the recent discovery in the Calao Channel complex, explorers can use the dataset for invaluable subsurface insights to increase their chances of success in the region. To top it off, it can also be used to gain regional context into the adjacent acreage of the Baleine field for further opportunities such as lead maturation, de-risking, and further exploration delineation.

Dechun Lin, head of Earth Data, Viridien, said, “The recent Murene South and Baleine field discoveries highlight the growing importance of Tano Basin and the industry value of our multi-year reimaging programme. Viridien is proud to support exploration offshore Ivory Coast with cutting-edge data that is generating new insights to reveal further opportunities in this prolific basin.”

Global energy technology company, SLB's OneSubsea joint venture has been awarded a major multi-well engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract by Eni for Phase 3 of the deepwater Baleine project offshore Ivory Coast

Under the contract, SLB OneSubsea will deliver complete subsea production systems (SPS) for 13 wells, reinforcing its role as a core technology and execution partner on one of the most strategically significant offshore developments currently underway in the region.

The EPC scope includes subsea trees, umbilical, manifolds, multiphase flowmeters and control systems, along with installation, commissioning and life-of-field support. The integrated delivery model is designed to streamline execution and support the project’s fast-track development schedule.

"Baleine Phase 3 brings together scale and execution certainty," said Mads Hjelmeland, chief executive officer of SLB OneSubsea. "Through our subsea production system technology and by leveraging our established local presence, we are supporting Eni’s efforts to advance a complex, deepwater project efficiently while contributing to the long-term development of offshore resources in Côte d’Ivoire."

Project execution will be supported by SLB OneSubsea’s in-country presence and local capabilities, contributing to efficient delivery across the life of the project.

Following preliminary estimates from drilling activities offshore Eastern Mediterranean, Eni is anticipating the presence of approximately 2 trillion cubic feet of gas initially in place and 130 Mbbl of associated condensates

Discovered from the Denise W 1 exploration well, it especially aligns with the major's near-field and infrastructure-led exploration strategy as it comes with the potential for a massive fast-track development. The well is positioned less than 10 kms away from existing infrastructure, belonging to the Temsah Concession lying 70 km offshore in 95 m of water depth.

As part of substantial investments in brownfield assets, Eni had secured a 20-year renewal of the Temsah Concession in 2025 from the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation and Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company. The discovery thus comes as a significant return of investment for the oil major, similar to the now-producing Temsah field, which also featured a gas-bearing sandstone reservoir of excellent quality with about 50 m of net pay like the Denise well.

Eni's joint venture with EGPC, Petrobel, which operates the Denise Development Lease of the Temsah Concession, secures boosted gas output for the country, contributing to its national goals and energy security.

Eni operates the Denise Development Lease of the Temsah Concession with a 50% contractor working interest, alongside bp which holds the remaining 50%. 

Eni has been active in Egypt since 1954 and today holds a diversified portfolio spanning exploration, development, and production, with oil and gas production of 242 kboed equity in 2025. 

In line with Nigeria's strategy to expand reach in export market, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has globally released its new crude grade – Cawthorne 

With an API gravity of 36.4 that denotes the light and sweet kind, the Cawthorne crude rules global market demand because of its unmatched petrol and diesel yields. Comparable to Bonny Light, Cawthorne crude blend is the latest from Nigeria’s basket of crude grades, building on recent additions such as Nembe and Utapate. 

The consistent market launches come from optimised production, helping Nigeria to solidify its base in the export market with diverse offerings. The Cawthorne Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel, which is strategically positioned offshore Bonny, Rivers State for enhanced energy security and operational efficiency in easy crude evacuation from OML18, comprised the maiden 950,000 barrels cargo for export. Loaded on an MT Eburones vessel, it headed to the Netherlands, and unto the global market. 

As Nigeria aims to attain crude production of three million barrels per day and gas output to 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, the international launch of Cawthorne will unlock value from its asset base and deepen market competitiveness.

“This milestone reflects the direction we have set for NNPC Limited—one anchored on execution, partnership, and value creation. We are moving decisively from resource potential to resource monetisation, ensuring that every asset delivers measurable commercial outcomes.

"The successful export of the Cawthorne crude grade is not an isolated achievement; it is part of a broader, deliberate strategy to grow production, deepen market relevance, and strengthen Nigeria’s position as a reliable global energy supplier. We remain firmly focused on delivering sustainable growth in line with national objectives and global market expectations,” said Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, as he acknowledged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership and OML 18 partners' strong collaboration in achieving the milestone. 

Technological innovation, strategic partnerships, and operational discipline will remain central to NNPC Limited's vision as the organisation works towards value creation from Nigeria's vast hydrocarbons resources.

"The first thing that is important for the overall management of the company is to start trying to be visible," said the group chief executive officer of Nigerian National Petroleum Company, Bashir Bayo Ojulari, at the International Energy Week, while speaking to Andy Brown, the president of Energy Institute, which recently hosted the event's seventh edition in London

As the NNPC works towards achieving 3 million barrels of oil per day by 2030, the government-turned-private company is reviewing its portfolio as it undergoes major revisioning and restructuring. Ojulari hailed this as a very bold step on the Nigerian President's part, especially because the injection of international oil company veterans complemented the company's regional structure to form a new leadership team.

"Based on what we have seen so far, we are firstly restructuring the shape of our partnerships. Majority of our production, as you know, is in partnership with Shell, ExxonMobil, and other private companies. We focused on aligning our programmes and plans with these partners so that we have a joint committee," he said, alongside highlighting financing as a second challenge, which is also driving the company's portfolio decisions. 

NNPC's vision lies in pushing industrialisation within Nigeria and the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, while expanding the localisation of both oil and gas. The company's focus on meeting energy demand within Africa stands clear even at international platforms such as the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, where its strategy is more about deepening utilisation of its own resources than just producing and exporting. To ramp up expansion on the downstream side, the major Dangote refinery besides, several local refineries are currently operational as well. NNPC has thus identified significant downstream projects that can potentially support additional power generation, industrial gas-based industries, fertilisers and petrochemical points. Last year alone five agreements have been signed to advance utilisation across the region.

Gas is also a major element for NNPC in catapulting industrialisation in Africa. For starters, industrial parks in Nigeria were identified as supply points for mass consumption. These will be brought under the mega-infrasrtucture of the highly anticipated Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano Natural Gas Pipeline and the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben pipeline projects that are ready for commissioning this year. The combined capacity of these two pipelines are set to exceed 2 billion cubic feet of gas per day.

"We're passionate about connecting Africa," said Ojulari as he mentioned the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline that is set to run across West Africa down to Morocco. Expressing excitement regarding the project's viability inspite of its challenges, he said, "But today it's commercially very profitable venture...our plan is to just go in chunks. So the next is to go to Ivory Coast." Assuring that a list of countries are lined up to join the project, he explained, "Some of those countries also have gas resources, but they do not have the economy or scale. So the idea of that pipeline is that those countries that have stranded gas can also connect their gas to the pipeline as well as take the gas."

Having served six years as the managing director of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company, Ojulari's new role demands fresh approach towards success. "In Shell and in other IOC companies...we focus on the financial side of the opportunity...And then when we are all done, let's look at the non technical," he said while explaining how IOCs have their own framework with technical, economic, commercial, organisational and political aspects. And once all that are figured out, they check the competition in the industry.

On the other hand, speaking of his new role, he said, "We can't afford to do that in my world. We start with the political...It becomes more critical because here NNPC is owned by the 230 million Nigerians. They are shareholders. They have appointed two entities -- the finance ministry and the petroleum industry to be the holders of the shares. So our accountability is to these 230 million people. We cannot afford to exclude ourselves from the political structure. We are carrying people along...bringing in the key people."

He went on to add, "We are starting a project. You need to bring somebody from the Minister of Finance. We bring them up. So that way we all get to be part of the project. We're making progress...we are more confident, and we are getting a lot of support in terms of the direction we're going."

According to Ojulari, establishing capital and organisational discipline is critical in achieving operational excellence and NNPC's future repositioning. He acknowledged the role of the company's leadership in bringing on board the sheer knowledge around how exploration and production businesses should be run, and how that knowledge is being transmitted to the country's gas power, new energy and downstream business. This also allows the company to be prepared to demonstrate "what it looks like" as when political influence comes into question, a lot depends "around the ability to show what it looks like". 

While the fundamental structures around the paperwork are in place for NNPC's transition into a private company post the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, changing the deep-rooted culture still remains one of the biggest challenges. "From being a corporation to a privately owned company, what we have realised is that the Nigerians are not fully clear of the [transition]. It requires a lot of interaction." 

The community-based surveillance structure that has been introduced by the government to address oil theft issues in Nigeria has proved a success on this matter. Involving the combined efforts of not just the security forces but also the community, a 100% availability was achieved in production reconciliation in the terminals, which earlier went as low as 10%.

"Most times we look at [such] challenges from a security perspective, but is a fundamental social problem. Here you have an environment where you still need a lot of development and a lot of social structure. So what was unique about this surveillance structure was that it was a community based surveillance structure which then combined the effort of the community as well as the effort of the security forces. And what we started to see is that once we integrated and focused on development of the communities as well, we started achieving 100% availability...for the last nine months now," said Ojulari.