E&P

The UAE’s exit introduces new uncertainties for Africa.

While the recent withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC reflects longstanding tensions over production quotas and strategic direction, its implications extend far beyond the Gulf

For Africa — a continent with both major producers and heavily import dependent economies — the UAE’s exit introduces new uncertainties into an already fragile energy landscape.

Why the UAE left OPEC: The structural tensions

The UAE’s departure did not emerge in a vacuum. Several structural pressures have been building over the past decade:

• Quota rigidity: The UAE has repeatedly argued that its growing production capacity is not reflected in OPEC quotas.

• Divergence from Saudi Arabia: While Riyadh prioritises price stability, Abu Dhabi has increasingly favoured higher output and market share.

• Long-term strategy: The UAE is investing heavily in upstream expansion and wants the freedom to monetise reserves before global demand plateaus.

• Frustration with OPEC+ constraints: The post 2020 production management framework has been a source of friction.

The UAE’s exit signals a recalibration of its national energy strategy — and a potential weakening of OPEC’s cohesion.

Africa’s exposure

Africa’s relationship with OPEC is complex. Some states are members, others have withdrawn, and many rely on OPEC-driven price stability despite not being producers.

The UAE’s exit affects each differently.

OPEC member countries

Nigeria 

Africa’s largest oil producer faces chronic underproduction relative to its OPEC quota. A weaker OPEC could mean:

• Greater price volatility

• Reduced collective ability to stabilise markets

• Increased pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal planning

Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue makes it highly sensitive to any erosion of OPEC’s influence.

Angola 

Angola withdrew from OPEC in 2023, citing quota constraints that limited its production ambitions. The UAE’s exit validates Angola’s concerns and may encourage other producers to question the value of membership. Angola, however, remains exposed to global price swings, and reduced OPEC cohesion could amplify volatility.

Algeria

A long-standing OPEC loyalist, Algeria relies on the organisation’s collective discipline to maintain price floors. The UAE’s departure weakens Algeria’s diplomatic leverage and may complicate its efforts to stabilise domestic energy revenues.

Libya

Although exempt from quotas due to conflict, Libya is highly vulnerable to price instability. The UAE’s exit increases uncertainty in global markets, complicating Libya’s recovery planning and investment climate.

Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Gabon

These smaller producers have limited buffers and depend heavily on OPEC’s collective bargaining power. A weakened OPEC reduces their ability to influence global markets and exposes them to sharper price cycles.

Non OPEC member countries engaged in production and refinery

Egypt 

Egypt is a net importer of crude. Its refining sector and domestic energy pricing are sensitive to global price movements. Increased volatility could:

• Raise import costs

• Strain fiscal budgets

• Affect electricity and transport pricing

Egypt’s exposure is indirect but significant.

Sudan and South Sudan

South Sudan depends on oil for the majority of its national revenue, exporting through Sudanese pipelines. Both states rely on predictable global prices to maintain budget stability. Increased volatility could:

• Disrupt pipeline fee arrangements

• Reduce government revenue

• Complicate debt and fiscal planning

Their vulnerability is structural and immediate.

South Africa

South Africa’s closure of its refineries and conversions to import terminals made it a major importer of refined petroleum products and relies heavily on global price stability. The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC could increase price volatility, affecting transport, electricity generation and industrial production. With several refineries shut down or converted to import terminals, South Africa’s exposure to global price swings is significant.

Mozambique

Mozambique is emerging as a major gas producer but remains a net importer of refined petroleum products. LNG projects depend on stable global markets and investor confidence. Increased volatility could affect project timelines, financing and long term offtake agreements.

Namibia

Namibia is on the verge of becoming a major oil producer following recent offshore discoveries. For now, it remains import dependent. Price volatility affects domestic markets, but long term, a weakened OPEC could influence Namibia’s future production strategy and investment climate.

Ghana

Ghana is both a producer and importer of refined products. Price volatility affects fiscal planning, refinery economics, and the viability of offshore projects. A weaker OPEC could complicate Ghana’s long term revenue projections and investment climate.

Democratic Republic of Congo 

The DRC is a small producer but a major importer of refined products. Price instability affects mining operations, transport and electricity. The DRC’s exposure is indirect but significant due to its reliance on imported fuels and its large industrial sector.

Import-dependent African economies

A significant number of African states rely heavily on imported petroleum products and are therefore highly sensitive to global price movements. For these economies, OPEC’s cohesion matters because it stabilises international markets and reduces volatility. The UAE’s withdrawal introduces uncertainty that could affect inflation, transport costs, electricity pricing and fiscal planning.

This group includes:

• Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda - East African economies with growing energy demand and limited refining capacity.

• Senegal, Morocco, Tunisia - North and West African importers exposed to global price cycles.

• Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia - landlocked states dependent on regional supply chains through South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania.

• Ethiopia and Somalia - fully import-dependent economies where fuel prices directly affect food security and transport.

• Botswana and Namibia - reliant on South African and regional supply routes, with limited domestic buffers.

For these countries, a fractured OPEC could mean:

• Higher inflation driven by fuel and transport costs

• Increased food prices due to supply chain exposure

• Pressure on foreign exchange reserves

• Greater fiscal strain on subsidy dependent economies

• Higher electricity generation costs in diesel reliant grids

These states are indirect but significant stakeholders in OPEC stability, and any weakening of OPEC's price management capacity will be felt across their economies.

Continental level risks for Africa

The UAE’s withdrawal introduces several systemic risks:

• Increased price volatility as market coordination weakens

• Reduced OPEC influence, lowering the organisation’s ability to maintain price floors

• More aggressive production competition among producers

• Investor hesitation due to uncertainty in long-term price signals

• Refinery project uncertainty, especially for new African mega refineries

• Fiscal instability for oil dependent economies

Africa’s exposure is both direct (for producers) and indirect (for importers).

Strategic options for Africa

Africa cannot control OPEC dynamics, but it can strengthen its resilience.

To reduce dependence on external market governance, institutions such as the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation (APPO), African Union and Afreximbank can facilitate:

• regional production alignment

• joint investment frameworks

• coordinated policy responses

Acceleration of refinery expansion and integration can reduce dependence on external market governance. The following projects can bring down import dependence and stabilise domestic markets:

• Dangote Refinery (Nigeria)

• Cabinda Refinery (Angola)

• Uganda’s planned refinery

• Egypt’s ongoing expansions

To avoid the vulnerability of OPEC centric pricing cycles, African producers can diversify export markets and strengthen ties with:

• Asia

• BRICS +

• Regional African markets

Africa can build fiscal buffers such as sovereign wealth funds, stabilisation funds and hedging strategies to help governments absorb price shocks. It can also strengthen local content and value chains so that increased domestic value capture reduces vulnerability to external volatility and support long-term industrialisation.

Africa must not be a passive price taker. The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC is a reminder that global oil governance is shifting. Africa cannot afford to be reactive. By strengthening regional coordination, accelerating refinery development, diversifying markets, and building fiscal resilience, African states can navigate this transition with greater stability and strategic autonomy.

The article has been written by Elijah Paul RukidiMpuuga, FCIArb (UK), founder and principal, Equitas Dispute Resolution Group, LLC

Petralon 54 has revamped its production capacity significantly. (Image source: Petralon Energy)

Petralon Energy is an African exploration and production company with proven capacity to acquire, develop, finance, and operate oil and gas assets

Operating through its subsidiary Petralon 54, the company holds a 100% working interest in the Dawes Island Field in the Eastern Niger Delta.

In just under six months, Petralon 54 has revamped its production capacity significantly through its recently established DI-3 well. Operations began on 14 March 2026 and has since delivered average additional daily production of approximately 2,800 barrels of oil per day (bopd), bringing the field's combined production capacity to approximately 4,800 bopd.

DI-2 has been onstream since October 2025 and DI-3 builds directly on the performance of its predecessor. Together, the two wells have sustained back-to-back drilling programme on a field that was non-producing at the time of Petralon's acquisition in 2021. Till date, the company has exported over 350,000 barrels of oil from the field via the Bonny Oil and Gas Terminal, which is located around 30km from the field. The DI-3 well became operational with zero lost-time incidents and it reflects the company's commitment to world-class health, safety, and environmental standards across its operations.

Dawes Island is located approximately 15km from Port Harcourt in the Eastern Niger Delta. The island covers roughly 46 sq km and holds an estimated 17.6 mn barrels of recoverable oil. “Our success at Dawes Island was built on the conviction that Nigerians could acquire, develop, and operate world-class energy assets. That conviction once required courage, today, it stands on proof. The easy thing after DI-2 would have been to pause, but the determination and resilience of every single member of the Petralon team drove us forward, and DI-3 is the result of that effort. Progress like this is only possible through the strong collaboration we have built with our host communities, our regulator, and our partners. This is only the beginning of what Dawes Island can deliver," said Ahonsi Unuigbe, founder and chief executive officer of Petralon Energy.

Through the commencement of DI-3 production, Petralon Energy validates another major step in the phased development of Dawes Island. The company stays focused on growing production, strengthening its position as a leading indigenous operator in Nigeria's upstream sector, and advancing its longer-term ambition for the field.

88 Energy's 20% working interest in PEL93 will be fully earned and unconditional.

88 Energy Limited has a newfound interest in Petroleum Exploration Licence 93 (PEL 93), onshore Namibia, since there has been an amendment to the Farm-In Agreement with operator Monitor Exploration Limited (Monitor)

Now it is confirmed that 88 Energy's 20% working interest will be fully earned and unconditional and it will help to simplify the original structure and remove future funding obligations under the farm-in. Stage 2 and Stage 3 farm‑in obligations have been cancelled to reduce minimum forward financial exposure by approximately US$15mn.

"The amendment to the PEL 93 farm‑in agreement is a value-accretive outcome for 88 Energy shareholders, which secures our 20% working interest on an unconditional basis while removing future funding obligations. This provides highly capital-efficient exposure to a rapidly emerging large-scale frontier, with significant exploration upside potential,” said Ashley Gilbert, managing director of 88 Energy.

Monitor has completed an integrated interpretation of the recently acquired airborne gravity, magnetic and radiometric survey data over PEL 93. The work integrated the new datasets with historical 2D seismic, passive seismic and legacy data, including additional 2D seismic shot in late-2024, soil gas sampling and remote sensing. Monitor also noted the presence of at least one mature source rock demonstrated by oil and gas shows in wells drilled by near‑neighbour ReconAfrica to the east of the basin, notably the Kavango West‑1X well, in combination with legacy geological evidence across the basin.

Further, reservoirs and seals were identified in both the Mulden and Otavi sections in the Etosha‑5‑1A well drilled in the western part of the basin in 1991, which are expected to continue into the central basin. Importantly, PEL 93 lies away from an igneous complex identified in the eastern basin that appears to have degraded reservoir quality in some nearby wells, and benefits from increased Mulden shale content that may improve seal capacity and reservoir preservation. In conjunction with Monitor, 88 Energy is assessing results with a view to progressing a Prospective Resource assessment in accordance with ASX requirements. “Monitor's integrated aerogravity, magnetic and radiometric interpretation materially advances our understanding of the subsurface, strengthening advanced lead definition and confirming Lead 9 as a compelling drilling candidate,” adds Gilbert.

ReconAfrica is progressing production testing at the Kavango West-1X discovery in PEL 73. This work will provide critical insight into hydrocarbon deliverability and inform broader basin potential. Success could lead to a basin-opening event, with direct positive implications for the prospect of PEL 93. “Combined with increasing activity across the basin, including ReconAfrica's ongoing testing programme at its adjacent Kavango West-1X well, PEL 93 is perfectly positioned within a highly prospective and evolving petroleum system,” concludes Gilbert.

Block G continues to see multiple productive and asset integrity projects.

The Block G acquisition offshore Equatorial Guinea leads Panoro Energy ASA’s dynamic operational and financial updates ahead of Q1 2026 results

With the acquisition of an additional 40.375% in the Block that raises its total interests to 54.625%, the company is anticipating to attain group net production of 20,000 bopd during the course of 2027. This will enhance joint-venture role influencing future production growth, work programme and efficiency, while Panoro sees an increase in both frequency and size of crude oil liftings.

Meanwhile, Block G continues to see multiple productive and asset integrity projects for field life extension, and the partners are evaluating the potential for future infill drilling campaigns in the Okume Complex, using a conventional jack-up rig in shallow water, and subsea infill wells at the Ceiba field.

Julien Balkany, executive chairman of Panoro, said, “Q1 was a period of strong strategic and operational delivery for Panoro, highlighted by the announcement of a transformational, highly accretive acquisition of an additional 40.375% interest in Block G, just prior to the escalation of geopolitical events in the Middle East that has led to major disruption of regional trade flows and substantial increase in global oil prices. This opportune transaction further strengthens the scale and cash flow potential of Panoro, creating a materially larger, more resilient business in order to deliver enhanced shareholder returns. The acquisition received strong endorsement from the capital markets with the associated equity private placement and bond tap issuance both multiple times oversubscribed and closed within a matter of hours.

“Operationally, we delivered pro forma working interest production of 14,960 bopd, supported by stable performance across our core portfolio and we are on track to achieve 20,000 bopd during 2027.

“Looking ahead, our priorities remain unchanged: deliver our pipeline of high-impact organic growth opportunities, starting with the MaBoMo Phase 2 drilling campaign at our cornerstone Dussafu block offshore Gabon mid-year, maturing the Bourdon discovery towards FID and evaluating the new state-of-the-art seismic data we have recently acquired covering the Niosi, Guduma and Dussafu blocks which will allow us to confirm future drilling targets.

“In Equatorial Guinea, we have also received for the first time contingent resources recognition for Block EG-23 where we have high-graded the exciting Estrella discovery as a potential fast-track appraisal and development project that could be tied back to existing infrastructure as we position Panoro for the next phase of material production and free cash flow growth.”