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While the recent withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates from OPEC reflects longstanding tensions over production quotas and strategic direction, its implications extend far beyond the Gulf

For Africa — a continent with both major producers and heavily import dependent economies — the UAE’s exit introduces new uncertainties into an already fragile energy landscape.

Why the UAE left OPEC: The structural tensions

The UAE’s departure did not emerge in a vacuum. Several structural pressures have been building over the past decade:

• Quota rigidity: The UAE has repeatedly argued that its growing production capacity is not reflected in OPEC quotas.

• Divergence from Saudi Arabia: While Riyadh prioritises price stability, Abu Dhabi has increasingly favoured higher output and market share.

• Long-term strategy: The UAE is investing heavily in upstream expansion and wants the freedom to monetise reserves before global demand plateaus.

• Frustration with OPEC+ constraints: The post 2020 production management framework has been a source of friction.

The UAE’s exit signals a recalibration of its national energy strategy — and a potential weakening of OPEC’s cohesion.

Africa’s exposure

Africa’s relationship with OPEC is complex. Some states are members, others have withdrawn, and many rely on OPEC-driven price stability despite not being producers.

The UAE’s exit affects each differently.

OPEC member countries

Nigeria 

Africa’s largest oil producer faces chronic underproduction relative to its OPEC quota. A weaker OPEC could mean:

• Greater price volatility

• Reduced collective ability to stabilise markets

• Increased pressure on Nigeria’s fiscal planning

Nigeria’s dependence on oil revenue makes it highly sensitive to any erosion of OPEC’s influence.

Angola 

Angola withdrew from OPEC in 2023, citing quota constraints that limited its production ambitions. The UAE’s exit validates Angola’s concerns and may encourage other producers to question the value of membership. Angola, however, remains exposed to global price swings, and reduced OPEC cohesion could amplify volatility.

Algeria

A long-standing OPEC loyalist, Algeria relies on the organisation’s collective discipline to maintain price floors. The UAE’s departure weakens Algeria’s diplomatic leverage and may complicate its efforts to stabilise domestic energy revenues.

Libya

Although exempt from quotas due to conflict, Libya is highly vulnerable to price instability. The UAE’s exit increases uncertainty in global markets, complicating Libya’s recovery planning and investment climate.

Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Gabon

These smaller producers have limited buffers and depend heavily on OPEC’s collective bargaining power. A weakened OPEC reduces their ability to influence global markets and exposes them to sharper price cycles.

Non OPEC member countries engaged in production and refinery

Egypt 

Egypt is a net importer of crude. Its refining sector and domestic energy pricing are sensitive to global price movements. Increased volatility could:

• Raise import costs

• Strain fiscal budgets

• Affect electricity and transport pricing

Egypt’s exposure is indirect but significant.

Sudan and South Sudan

South Sudan depends on oil for the majority of its national revenue, exporting through Sudanese pipelines. Both states rely on predictable global prices to maintain budget stability. Increased volatility could:

• Disrupt pipeline fee arrangements

• Reduce government revenue

• Complicate debt and fiscal planning

Their vulnerability is structural and immediate.

South Africa

South Africa’s closure of its refineries and conversions to import terminals made it a major importer of refined petroleum products and relies heavily on global price stability. The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC could increase price volatility, affecting transport, electricity generation and industrial production. With several refineries shut down or converted to import terminals, South Africa’s exposure to global price swings is significant.

Mozambique

Mozambique is emerging as a major gas producer but remains a net importer of refined petroleum products. LNG projects depend on stable global markets and investor confidence. Increased volatility could affect project timelines, financing and long term offtake agreements.

Namibia

Namibia is on the verge of becoming a major oil producer following recent offshore discoveries. For now, it remains import dependent. Price volatility affects domestic markets, but long term, a weakened OPEC could influence Namibia’s future production strategy and investment climate.

Ghana

Ghana is both a producer and importer of refined products. Price volatility affects fiscal planning, refinery economics, and the viability of offshore projects. A weaker OPEC could complicate Ghana’s long term revenue projections and investment climate.

Democratic Republic of Congo 

The DRC is a small producer but a major importer of refined products. Price instability affects mining operations, transport and electricity. The DRC’s exposure is indirect but significant due to its reliance on imported fuels and its large industrial sector.

Import-dependent African economies

A significant number of African states rely heavily on imported petroleum products and are therefore highly sensitive to global price movements. For these economies, OPEC’s cohesion matters because it stabilises international markets and reduces volatility. The UAE’s withdrawal introduces uncertainty that could affect inflation, transport costs, electricity pricing and fiscal planning.

This group includes:

• Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda - East African economies with growing energy demand and limited refining capacity.

• Senegal, Morocco, Tunisia - North and West African importers exposed to global price cycles.

• Zimbabwe, Malawi, Zambia - landlocked states dependent on regional supply chains through South Africa, Mozambique and Tanzania.

• Ethiopia and Somalia - fully import-dependent economies where fuel prices directly affect food security and transport.

• Botswana and Namibia - reliant on South African and regional supply routes, with limited domestic buffers.

For these countries, a fractured OPEC could mean:

• Higher inflation driven by fuel and transport costs

• Increased food prices due to supply chain exposure

• Pressure on foreign exchange reserves

• Greater fiscal strain on subsidy dependent economies

• Higher electricity generation costs in diesel reliant grids

These states are indirect but significant stakeholders in OPEC stability, and any weakening of OPEC's price management capacity will be felt across their economies.

Continental level risks for Africa

The UAE’s withdrawal introduces several systemic risks:

• Increased price volatility as market coordination weakens

• Reduced OPEC influence, lowering the organisation’s ability to maintain price floors

• More aggressive production competition among producers

• Investor hesitation due to uncertainty in long-term price signals

• Refinery project uncertainty, especially for new African mega refineries

• Fiscal instability for oil dependent economies

Africa’s exposure is both direct (for producers) and indirect (for importers).

Strategic options for Africa

Africa cannot control OPEC dynamics, but it can strengthen its resilience.

To reduce dependence on external market governance, institutions such as the African Petroleum Producers’ Organisation (APPO), African Union and Afreximbank can facilitate:

• regional production alignment

• joint investment frameworks

• coordinated policy responses

Acceleration of refinery expansion and integration can reduce dependence on external market governance. The following projects can bring down import dependence and stabilise domestic markets:

• Dangote Refinery (Nigeria)

• Cabinda Refinery (Angola)

• Uganda’s planned refinery

• Egypt’s ongoing expansions

To avoid the vulnerability of OPEC centric pricing cycles, African producers can diversify export markets and strengthen ties with:

• Asia

• BRICS +

• Regional African markets

Africa can build fiscal buffers such as sovereign wealth funds, stabilisation funds and hedging strategies to help governments absorb price shocks. It can also strengthen local content and value chains so that increased domestic value capture reduces vulnerability to external volatility and support long-term industrialisation.

Africa must not be a passive price taker. The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC is a reminder that global oil governance is shifting. Africa cannot afford to be reactive. By strengthening regional coordination, accelerating refinery development, diversifying markets, and building fiscal resilience, African states can navigate this transition with greater stability and strategic autonomy.

The article has been written by Elijah Paul RukidiMpuuga, FCIArb (UK), founder and principal, Equitas Dispute Resolution Group, LLC

Oil major, Shell Exploration Company BV, has secured interests in Sierra Leone with the signing of Reconnaissance Permit Agreement through the Petroleum Directorate of Sierra Leone (PDSL) during the Invest in African Energy 2026 Forum in Paris

Aligning with the country's strategy of derisking frontier acreage, the agreement allows Shell the rights to initiate advanced geological and geophysical studies across offshore G-Blocks that adds up to approximately 20,594 sq kms. The major will conduct seismic data quality control and interpretation, integration of well data, detailed petrophysical analysis, basin modelling, petroleum systems evaluation, identification of structural traps and reservoir fairways, and play-based exploration and prospectivity mapping.

“This agreement with Shell marks a defining moment in Sierra Leone’s journey to responsibly unlock the value of our natural resources. It sends a strong and credible signal to the global investment community… that Sierra Leone is open for business, underpinned by transparency, stability and strong governance,” said President Julius Maada Bio in a statement released by PDSL.

A major of Shell's kind will bring to the region the advantages of high-quality seismic data and advanced subsurface imaging ahead of future licensing rounds. “Signing this agreement...underscores Sierra Leone’s growing visibility on the global energy stage. Securing Shell as a partner is a strong validation of the work we have undertaken to strengthen our geoscience database and regulatory framework," said PDSL director general Foday Mansaray.

Sierra Leone has been working consistently to attract investment for its upstream sector by fostering transparent engagement with global operators. Data, transparency and credible partnerships remain central to the region's upstream ambitions. 

Global technology company SLB has announced a three-year agreement with Azule Energy to extend and enhance the use of its enterprise digital platform across Azule’s operations in Angola

The platform aims to drive more consistent execution, speed up decision-making, and support reliable energy delivery throughout Azule’s portfolio.

Azule Energy, a joint venture between bp and Eni and the largest independent energy producer in Angola, manages some of the country’s most complex assets. This new agreement builds on two years of Delfi use within Azule’s reservoir organization, where the platform supports reservoir studies, modelling, simulation, and well planning workflows, while enabling enterprise-wide digital integration by connecting reservoir workflows with wider operational data environments over time.

“Azule operates large, complex energy assets where execution reliability and consistency matter,” said ND Maduemezia, president, Europe and Africa, SLB.

“This agreement expands the use of an enterprise digital platform that connects workflows and data, strengthening and accelerating decision-making and improving execution predictability in support of reliable energy delivery in Angola.”

The agreement highlights Azule’s shift toward enterprise-scale digital operations, leveraging SLB’s platform and cloud-based capabilities. Implementation is supported through the SLB Luanda Performance Center, which allows digital solutions to be deployed and maintained locally.

The platform supports critical workflows across Azule’s reservoir and planning functions, with gradual integration into broader operational data systems. It also positions Azule to quickly adopt emerging digital and AI-driven technologies, enabling continuous performance enhancements.

Early results demonstrate tangible benefits: integrated workflows, including DrillPlan coherent well planning and engineering solutions, have shortened planning cycles from days to hours while boosting automation and reducing manual coordination.

The enterprise platform strengthens execution consistency across Azule’s large, mature operations, where operational discipline is key to sustaining performance.

In a major step towards the development of its first project in Egypt, Arcius, in collaboration with the Egyptian Natural Gas Holding Company, has reached final investment decision (FID) on the Harmattan gas field in the El Burg Offshore concession area

Approximately half a billion dollars investment by the bp and XRG venture, the project aims to boost natural gas production.

This comes following Arcius’ acquisition of the El Burg Offshore concession area in February 2026. The project's execution phase will be led by ENPPI delivering engineering, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) contract for Pharaonic Petroleum Company on behalf of El Burg Offshore Petroleum Company. Petroleum Marine Services and Petrojet will be providing services in the capacity of subcontractors.

Speaking on the FID and acknowledging the project's purpose to primarily meet domestic market needs, the chief executive officer of Arcius, Naser Al Yafei, said, "The Final Investment Decision to develop the Harmattan field marks an important milestone in advancing one of our first projects in Egypt toward production. It reflects our confidence in the potential of Egypt’s energy sector and our commitment to close cooperation with the Egyptian government, EGAS, and our execution partners to strengthen Egypt’s natural gas supply, support energy security, and reinforce Egypt’s position as a regional energy hub in the Eastern Mediterranean.” 

The FID was announced during the EGYPES 2026 with the participation of EGAS, Arcius as the Operator of El Burg Offshore Concession, PhPC, ENPPI, and in the presence of Karim Badawi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources.

In line with Nigeria's strategy to expand reach in export market, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has globally released its new crude grade – Cawthorne 

With an API gravity of 36.4 that denotes the light and sweet kind, the Cawthorne crude rules global market demand because of its unmatched petrol and diesel yields. Comparable to Bonny Light, Cawthorne crude blend is the latest from Nigeria’s basket of crude grades, building on recent additions such as Nembe and Utapate. 

The consistent market launches come from optimised production, helping Nigeria to solidify its base in the export market with diverse offerings. The Cawthorne Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel, which is strategically positioned offshore Bonny, Rivers State for enhanced energy security and operational efficiency in easy crude evacuation from OML18, comprised the maiden 950,000 barrels cargo for export. Loaded on an MT Eburones vessel, it headed to the Netherlands, and unto the global market. 

As Nigeria aims to attain crude production of three million barrels per day and gas output to 12 billion cubic feet per day by 2030, the international launch of Cawthorne will unlock value from its asset base and deepen market competitiveness.

“This milestone reflects the direction we have set for NNPC Limited—one anchored on execution, partnership, and value creation. We are moving decisively from resource potential to resource monetisation, ensuring that every asset delivers measurable commercial outcomes.

"The successful export of the Cawthorne crude grade is not an isolated achievement; it is part of a broader, deliberate strategy to grow production, deepen market relevance, and strengthen Nigeria’s position as a reliable global energy supplier. We remain firmly focused on delivering sustainable growth in line with national objectives and global market expectations,” said Bashir Bayo Ojulari, Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Ltd, as he acknowledged President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership and OML 18 partners' strong collaboration in achieving the milestone. 

Technological innovation, strategic partnerships, and operational discipline will remain central to NNPC Limited's vision as the organisation works towards value creation from Nigeria's vast hydrocarbons resources.

Oil Review Africa catches up with Christopher Hudson, President of dmg events, ahead of ADIPEC 2025

Excerpts from an interview: 

Energy across Africa, as elsewhere in the world, is seeing major shifts and advancements. How does ADIPEC 2025 reflect this changing industry landscape and help meet the needs? 

Energy is one of the most dynamic and rapidly evolving sectors. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy demand rose by 2.2% last year, outpacing the average annual increase of 1.3% recorded over the last decade. At the same time, the global population is projected to reach 9.8 billion by 2050, with over 750 million people still lacking access to electricity, and more than 2.1 billion people remain without access to clean cooking. Rising urbanisation and living standards are reshaping energy demand, with air conditioning alone expected to be one of the largest contributors to electricity demand growth in the coming decades. This reveals the sector’s increasing need to not only produce more energy but to produce it in a way that is equitable and sustainable.

In this context, ADIPEC 2025 is being held under the theme of ‘Energy. Intelligence. Impact’. It reflects a simple but powerful truth: meeting the world’s growing need for secure, affordable and sustainable energy will depend on how intelligently we harness every resource – human, technological and natural – to deliver meaningful results for economies and communities alike.

At its core, the theme recognises that intelligence – both human and artificial – is transforming the way energy is produced, managed, and consumed. From AI-driven optimisation and digital integration to advances in hydrogen, LNG, and decarbonisation, intelligent innovation is reshaping the global energy landscape. ADIPEC serves as the meeting point for these forces, where ideas translate into action and impact can be measured in investment, policy, and progress.

AI is a major topic of discussion in the context of energy, due to its high demand. How is ADIPEC responding to the challenges and opportunities of the AI-energy nexus? 

Artificial intelligence is reshaping both global energy demand and the industry’s ability to respond. Data centres already consume around 1.5% of global electricity, and with AI workloads, that demand could more than double by 2030, rising from 415 TWh to 945 TWh. A single advanced AI model can require as much electricity to train as 100 households use in a year, while an AI query may consume 10 times more energy than a standard search.

This convergence is both a challenge and an opportunity. AI requires enormous energy, but it can also optimise grids, cut waste, improve operational efficiency, and accelerate decarbonisation. At ADIPEC 2025, we have expanded our AI Zone into five experiential areas showcasing how AI is transforming systems, people, and infrastructure. Alongside this, more than 80 conference sessions are dedicated to the AI–energy nexus, from predictive analytics to governance frameworks.

For Africa, this is particularly significant. Many countries are rapidly digitalising while also expanding power systems. The ability of AI to enhance reliability and reduce costs could be transformative for energy access and economic growth.

How is the diversity of the African continent and its vast energy sector reflected across ADIPEC 2025’s programme? 

Africa is a core part of ADIPEC’s community. This year, we are proud to welcome a strong delegation of African ministers and leaders, including those from Nigeria, Kenya, Uganda, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe, Gambia, Equatorial Guinea, and Egypt. Their participation enriches ADIPEC’s Strategic Conference and exhibitions, ensuring Africa’s perspectives are reflected in discussions on natural gas, hydrogen, downstream, and low-carbon solutions.

dmg events is also the largest organiser of energy and infrastructure events across Africa, with long-standing operations in Nigeria, Mozambique, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, South Africa, Egypt and Morocco. This presence gives us a unique vantage point to bridge African priorities with global dialogue.

Africa holds some of the world’s largest reserves of natural gas, oil, and minerals, as well as enormous potential in renewables. ADIPEC is committed to supporting this potential by convening African voices alongside global leaders, unlocking partnerships that can expand access, accelerate industrialisation, and strengthen Africa’s contribution to global energy progress.

Some of ADIPEC 2025’s notable African speakers include: Honourable J. Opiyo Wandayi, Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum, Kenya; Honourable Sen. Dr. Heineken Lokpobiri, Minister for State (Oil), Petroleum Resources, Nigeria; Rt. Honourable Ekperikpe Ekpo, Minister for State (Gas) Petroleum Resources, Nigeria; Honourable Chief Adebayo Adelabu, Minister of Power, Nigeria; Honourable Julius D. Mattai, Minister of Mines and Mineral Resources, Republic of Sierra Leone; Honourable Ruth Nankabirwa Ssentamu, Minister of Energy and Mineral Development, Uganda; His Excellency Karim Badawi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Arab Republic of Egypt; His Excellency Antonio Oburu Ondo, Minister of Mines and Hydrocarbons, Equatorial Guinea, Honorable Julius D. Mattai, Minister of Mines and Mineral Resources, Republic of Sierra Leonne; Honourable July Moyo, Minister of Energy and Power Development, Zimbabwe; His Excellency Nani Juwara, Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Gambia; Honourable Cheikh Niane, Deputy Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Senegal, and Mathias Katamba, board chairman, Uganda National Oil Company.