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The war involving Iran has moved from a geopolitical story to a supply chain shock -- and fast

At the centre of it all is the Strait of Hormuz. In normal times, roughly a quarter of global seaborne oil flows through that narrow channel. Today, it’s partially blocked, militarised and unpredictable. That matters more than most people realise, especially in Africa.

This is not just an oil story. Yes, oil is the headline. The International Energy Agency is already calling this the largest disruption in oil market history, with up to 30% of global oil flows affected. Prices are responding accordingly. Analysts are openly discussing US$150-US$200 per barrel scenarios if disruption persists into the next four to eight weeks.

But stopping at oil is missing the real risk. Because Hormuz doesn’t just move fuel. It moves, fertiliser, petrochemicals, plastics inputs and liquefied natural gas. And that’s where Africa gets hit hardest.

Across East and southern Africa, dependence on Middle Eastern supply chains is structural, not optional. Countries like Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Zambia are already implementing emergency measures, including subsidies and reserve releases. In parts of East Africa, over 50% of fertiliser imports come via these routes and globally, up to one-third of fertiliser trade moves through Hormuz.

And prices are moving fast; Urea prices are already up by 50% since the conflict began and fertiliser shortages are expected to impact planting cycles within weeks. That translates directly into higher food prices, lower yields and increased inflation. In economies where food already dominates household spend, that’s not a marginal issue. It’s systemic.

Fuel price shock hits logistics immediately

Diesel is the bloodstream of African logistics. As oil spikes, transport costs rise almost instantly. We can expect higher road freight tariffs, airline and shipping surcharges and margin compression across FMCG and retail

Shipping delays compound the problem

Major shipping lines have already rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to transit times. That means longer lead times, working capital pressure and more stockouts.

Fertiliser becomes the sleeper crisis

This is the one most executives will underestimate. Miss a planting window, and the impact shows up months later in food inflation, social pressure and currency weakness. 

Secondary shortages begin to emerge and this is where it gets messy:

Plastics (packaging constraints)
Chemicals (manufacturing inputs)
Even pharmaceuticals

The supply chain doesn’t break in one place—it ripples. The brutal reality is that Africa is a price taker. Most African economies are net importers of fuel and fertiliser and are highly exposed to global shipping routes which means there is very little control, only response.

The difference between businesses that weather this disruption and those that don't will not be found in strategy decks. it will be found in the decisions made over the next two to four weeks. Lock in supply now, even at uncomfortable prices, because in volatile markets availability will always beat price.

Selectively build buffer stock across fuel, critical imported inputs, and high-margin SKUs. Working capital will sting, but stockouts will cost more. It is important to reroute early, explore alternative ports, different origin countries, and split shipments before the options narrow.

Reset contractual expectations with both customers and suppliers without delay, because what was considered late last month is fast becoming the new normal. Run at least three disruption scenario -- two weeks, six weeks, three months -- and tie each directly to pricing, inventory policy and customer communications. Finally, watch fertiliser and food input prices closely: even if the business sits outside agriculture, its customers do not, and the ripple effects on patterns are coming regardless. The window to act is open. It will not stay that way.

This is not a distant war -- it is a supply chain event with immediate commercial consequences. Should the Strait of Hormuz remain unstable for another month, Africa will not simply absorb higher prices; it will contend with slower trade, tighter margins, and rising food insecurity. The uncomfortable truth is that the businesses which act early will appear paranoid today -- and exceptionally well-positioned in 30 days.

The article has been written by Ronald Mlalazi, president, Africa Supply Chain Confederation

Working closely with the Equatorial Guinea government's Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons, Searcher has completed a high-resolution offshore seismic reprocessing project ahead of the EG Ronda 2026 licensing round in April

The Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons will be leveraging 7,337 km of data from the project to de-risk exploration efforts so that the region's energy sector can be revitalised with new investments and discoveries.

To ensure utmost clarity, the legacy datasets acquired from the project are intercepted using broadband technologies such as Pre-Stack Depth Migration (PSDM) and Full Waveform Inversion (FWI). Companies can expect actionable insights into hydrocarbon systems and potential reservoirs from detailed imagings that unlock complex geological structures.This will make strategic planning in selecting promising prospects easy for clients as they can take control of their decisions awithout having to deal with exploration uncertainty.

Searcher’s managing director, Alan Hopping, claims that the project is a first of its kind in Equatorial Guinea, ensuring clarity and resolution that are potential of fundamentally changing the country's offshore exploration scene. “Our close cooperation with the Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons was key to delivering a resource that supports the country’s ambitions and empowers the industry to unlock new opportunities,” he said. 

With regulatory permits for production testing secured and production liner procured from North America, work crews from Reconnaissance Energy Africa have prepared the Kavango West 1X discovery well in Namibia for testing operations 

Equipment and services will be delivered on site by contracts with Halliburton and SLB, while local suppliers have been engaged in multiple support capacities.

New log analysis from latest rock data has refined all previously disclosed results. The current petrophysical analysis indicates 75 metres (246 feet) of net hydrocarbon pay in the Huttenberg formation, an increase over the previously disclosed 64 metres (210 feet).

ReconAfrica, which is the operator of Kavango West, will be conducting production testing across six optimized zones, three of which are in the Huttenberg formation and three in the deeper Elandshoek formation. A total of 345 metres (1,132 feet) of prospective interval will be isolated and perforated for testing. 

In the shallow waters of Gabon, the company is currently reprocessing 3D seismic data across focused regions for appraisal prospects within the 1,214 sq km-long Ngulu block, including the Loba discovery. 

This strategic block is located on trend to several sizable producing oil fields. The key aspects of the Ngulu block include the Loba oil discovery and over 28 seismically identified prospects in the pre- and post-salt plays. 

The Eni-led Mozambique Rovuma Venture has signed a significant contract with Technip Energies, JGC and Samsung Heavy Industries to secure their ongoing project delivery services for the long term on the Coral Norte Floating Liquefied Natural Gas project offshore Mozambique

This follows the previously announced contract on initial activities, locking in Technip's services for the advanced stages of development as well.

The country’s second floating LNG facility, Coral Norte will be an enhanced replica of the Coral Sul project, which is currently up and running, producing over 5 million tonnes of LNG. The hull launch of Coral Norte already took place in South Korea in January. 

Loic Chapuis, president - project delivery and services of Technip Energies, said, "Building on the success of Coral Sul, and together with JGC and Samsung Heavy Industries, this award further strengthens our long-standing partnership with Eni and their Area 4 partners. It also underscores our leadership in delivering innovative and complex LNG solutions to support long-term energy supply and security in Mozambique and globally.”

Replicating the same feed gas composition and field location of the Coral Sul will ensure a cost-effective and de-risked project delivery for Coral Norte, as it will be the result of proven design. This predictability at scale will ensure boosted LNG output from Coral Norte with optimal investments.

“Coral Norte is a clear recognition of Technip Energies’ engineering and project delivery expertise and our ability to replicate proven solutions with discipline and certainty," Chapuis said. 

In a significant China-Africa trade collaboration, Dangote Industries Limited has signed a US$4.2bn, 25‑year natural gas supply agreement with China’s GCL Group to drive its upcoming fertiliser complex in Ethiopia

Signed in Lagos, the agreement applies for GCL to supply natural gas from Ethiopia’s Calub Gas Field in the Ogaden Basin via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline for the fertiliser facility set to be established in Gode, Somali Region.

Developed along with Ethiopian Investment Holdings, the US$2.5bn plant is expected to become operational from 2029. Following commissioning, the facility will be equipped to produce three million tonnes of urea annually. It will be the largest fertiliser hub in East Africa, capable of covering not only Ethiopia’s import demand but also supply to neighbouring markets.

Calling the deal transformative, Aliko Dangote, president of Dangote Industries, said, “Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products.

“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production.”

“This cooperation will expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework,” said GCL Chairman Zhu Gongshan.

The project carries a lot of strategic significance in terms of employment generation, infrastructure advancement, and alignment with global low‑carbon goals. 

At international Energy Week in London, Tony Attah, CEO of Renaissance Africa Energy Company, gave an impassioned presentation calling for Africa’s energy transition to be on African terms, urging global support and hailing the divestment of energy resources from international ownership into African hands

Attah began by acknowledging the role of the energy transition to protect the planet and ensure sustainability, but emphasised the need for a just and equitable transition, respecting Africa’s current realities.
“We need to talk about Africa’s energy transition on African terms. We are not challenging the timelines that have been set by Europe and the rest of the world; we are only insisting that these goals be achieved in the way of Africa’s current realities,” he said.

Attah noted the dual changes in Africa: the energy transition itself and the new phase of African ownership and participation in energy systems. Discussing the global energy context, he noted the rising energy demand and fragility of global energy systems, as evidenced by the Russia Ukraine war. Energy demand is still rising, with consumption of all energy sources, both renewables and fossil fuels, hitting record levels. And while global CO2 emissions have reached record levels for a fourth consecutive year, Africa is contributing just 4% of those emissions, but is still paying the price.

The world, including Africa will need more energy due to population growth and the rise of living standards, with global energy demand projected to grow by around 50% between 2018 and 2050. Africa’s population forecast to rise by 67% between 2018 and 2050, from 1.5bn to 2.5bn with Nigeria’s forecast to double from 200 to 400mn in the same time frame, raising the stark possibility of an energy deficit.

Energy paradox

Attah highlighted Africa’s energy paradox, noting its rich energy resources but widespread energy poverty. “We have world class solar energy resources, 40% of the global solar resource base, strong wind, major hydro and geothermal prospects, critical minerals and substantial hydrocarbons, yet we face an energy paradox where millions of Africans remain energy poor and by implication socially and economically very poor. Over 500 million Africans, nearly 43% of the population, lack direct access to electricity, and over 850 million people lacking access to clean cooking solutions, relying on traditional biomass like wood and charcoal, with a negative impact on health.

800,000 people die annually in Africa due to lack of clean energy including 100,000 in Nigeria, he noted, where 80 million Nigerians lack access to electricity. The country loses over US$29bn a year due to unreliable power supply, and 60% of manufacturing costs are attributed to lack of energy.

Africa needs to define its energy transition based on its current realities, he said.

“You cannot decarbonise the system that you have not yet built, and you cannot transition from the energy you do not have. That is the reality. This is the narrative that we as Renaissance are seeking to help reshape and change in the interests of Africa.”

Turning to the foundation of Renaissance Africa Energy Co, which will celebrate its first anniversary this March, he explained that IOC divestment had enables its shareholders to acquire Shell Nigeria’s onshore shallow water assets, marking a transition from international to African operatorship. These assets have now been successfully operated over the last 11 months. He acknowledged the Nigerian government’s speedy approval of the divestments and the major reforms that have energised the industry, as well as the support of NNPC.

“As our name connotes, it’s a new beginning and perhaps the greatest opportunity for Nigeria and indeed Africa that this energy renaissance is African owned and Africa led,” he noted, adding that the company has a bold vision to be Africa’s leading energy company enabling energy security and industrialisation in a sustainable manner. “This mission will be underpinned by our core values of collaboration, respect, integrity, safety and performance.”

The company has increased oil production by 100,000 in 100 days and contributes 2bn scf of gas to the global gas market, and is working to set the company on a growth path aligned with Nigeria’s ambition to produce 2mn BOPD by 2027 and 3mn bopd by 2030.

“African companies are not just replacing international companies. We are redefining the objectives of the assets linking production to power, to industry, to jobs, domestic value and by implication, economic and social political stability of Africa.”

Need for global support

Attah underlined the need for global support to enable Africa’s energy transition, including finance, technology and reliable infrastructure, to enable Africa to convert potential into progress, highlighting that Africa is rich in resources, talent and ambition and noting its young population.

“Africa should be enabled to lead its energy future on its own terms,” he stressed. “If the world wants Africa to replace diesel and biomass as the main energy source, then gas to power, grids and domestic systems must be financed and supported to power industries with lower emissions. Africa needs proven technologies deployed at scale, designed for reliability and real operating conditions. Gas, renewables, storage, grids must work together as systems. Africa’s transition will endure only if we invest in people, governance and operating discipline so Africa-led companies deliver competitively and responsibly for decades to come,” he said. “This is why the current shift in ownership matters.”

Attah highlighted the need for Africa governments to create certainty, stability and an enabling environment for investors to thrive, and urged global business to partner with Africa for mutual benefit, to integrate global energy systems and global financial institutions and release funds to unleash growth.

“If we get this right, we will build globally, more robust energy systems that will power industries strengthen societies, deliver dignity and reduce emissions in a manner that will enable climate change goals to be achieved sustainability, at least looking through the Africa lens,” he concluded. “Africa’s energy transition will not slow the global transition, it will strengthen it, because when Africa powers its people, builds its industries and grows responsibly the world does not lose; if anything its wins, and the vagaries associated with Africa’s underdevelopment will be a thing of the past.

He ended with the rallying cry, “Let the Africa energy renaissance begin!”