Global hydrogen demand reached 97Mt in 2023, an increase of 2.5% compared to 2022. (Image source: Adobe Stock)
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while investment and projects in low-emissions hydrogen are increasing, policies to stimulate demand in key sectors are required to accelerate deployment
These are the findings published in the organisation’s Global Hydrogen Review 2024, an annual publication that tracks production and demand worldwide in a bid to inform energy stakeholders on the status and future prospects of low-emissions hydrogen.
The research shows that a wave of new projects indicates the growing momentum around low-emissions hydrogen despite challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, persistent cost pressures, and a lack of incentives to accelerate demand from potential consumers. In the last 12 months, the number of projects that have reached final investment decision has doubled – this would increase today’s global production of low-emissions hydrogen fivefold by 2030. The total electrolyser capacity has reached final investment decision now stands at 20GW globally.
However, the IEA reports hesitancy from developers due to a lack of clarity on government support before making investments. As a result, most potential projects are still in planning or early-stage development, and some larger projects face delays or cancellations.
“The growth in new projects suggests strong investor interest in developing low-emissions hydrogen production, which could play a critical role in reducing emissions from industrial sectors such as steel, refining and chemicals,” remarked IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “But for these projects to be a success, low-emissions hydrogen producers need buyers. Policymakers and developers must look carefully at the tools for supporting demand creation while also reducing costs and ensuring clear regulations are in place that will support further investment in the sector.”
Hydrogen demand against production
Further key findings from the report include a notable gap between government goals for production and demand. According to the research, production targets set by governments add up to as much as 43mn tonnes per year by 2030, but demand targets only total 11mn tonnes by 2030. While some government policies are already in place to stimulate demand, the progress made in the hydrogen sector so far is not sufficient to meet climate goals.
Moreover, as a nascent sector, low-emissions hydrogen still faces technology and production cost pressures, with electrolysers in particular slipping back on some of their past progress due to higher prices and tight supply chains. A continuation of cost reductions relies on technology development, but also optimising deployment processes and moving to mass manufacturing to achieve economies of scale.
Cost reductions will benefit all projects, but the impact on the competitiveness of individual projects will vary. Industrial hubs – where low-emissions hydrogen could replace the existing large demand for hydrogen that is currently met by production from unabated fossil fuels – remain an important untapped opportunity by governments to stimulate demand, according to the IEA.
Hydrogen potential in emerging markets
Regarding emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), the report notes that such regions (particularly Africa and Latin America) hold significant potential for low-cost, low-emissions hydrogen production.
To unlock this potential, the IEA advises, governments of advanced economies and multilateral development banks should look to provide targeted support such as grants and concessional financing in order to address key challenges that are inhibiting project developers in these countries – most notably, around financing. Developing these projects, the research reports, can help cover domestic needs, reduce import dependencies and potentially enable the export of hydrogen or hydrogen-based products.
