Exploration

The phase out of cuts shift from 12 months to 18 months. (Image source: Rystad Energy)

OPEC+ members have extended the voluntary adjustments of 1.65 million bpd announced in April 2023 until the end of December 2026

The organisation has extended the additional voluntary adjustments of 2.2 million bpd announced in November 2023 until the end of March 2025, with shifting the phase out from September  2025 to September 2026
New compensation schedules for overproducing countries will be submitted by the end of December 2024. 

“Oil markets have been anxiously awaiting this OPEC+ meeting since the US election results made clear a Trump 2.0 presidency was on the horizon. Trump’s tariff-forward stance toward China and persisting weak demand provided the group with all of the encouragement needed to extend production cuts until the first quarter of 2025. The overall signal to the market is constructive and will likely prevent any price downsides in the short term. The announcement makes crystal clear that the group is worried about both a potential supply glut and a lack of compliance with production targets among member countries,” said Mukesh Sahdev, global head of commodity markets, Rystad Energy.

Addressing supply glut

The latest OPEC+ announcement hints that compliance among members is a concern. The organisation, however, has maintained that monthly changes can be paused or reversed at any time.

With the latest announcement, the production profile and oil balances clearly indicate an acknowledgment of the emerging supply glut without the extension in 2025.

The phase out of cuts shift from 12 months to 18 months is constructive for the crude balances for 2025, with a swing from average 0.7 million bpd surplus to average 0.3 million bpd deficit.

The confirmation that the UAE’s new baseline (300,000 bpd higher) will only start in April 2025 and will be gradually phased in over an 18-month period establishes the country's firm commitment towards OPEC+.

Rystad believes that the non-OPEC+ supply hasn't posed much of a concern for OPEC+.

The Deepsea Bollsta rig has been released post work completion. (Image source: Springfield E&P)

The Afina discovery offshore Ghana confirmed good reservoir productivity from Cenomanian sandstones, and the presence of gas/condensate from Turonian reservoir

The results followed an appraisal well test activity by re-entry, as reported by Ghanaian company Springfield Exploration and Production Limited and its partners, Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) and GNPC EXPLORCO. 

A drill stem test (DST) on the Cenomanian sandstone gave way to a maximum flow rate of 4500 barrels of oil per day confirming good reservoir productivity on the upper end of pre-test expectations, while indicating an estimated flow rate potential of up to 12,000 boepd from a mini-DST conducted on the Turonian sandstone.

Pressure transient analysis from this reservoir showed the pressures consistent with that collected in 2019, when the 1030m-deep Afina-1x was drilled to a total water depth of 4085 metres. 

Northern Ocean Limited-operated Deepsea Bollsta rig that was deployed for the campaign has been released post work completion. 

Considering well completion options

“We are extremely happy with the results of the appraisal programme which has further confirmed our understanding of our geological, geophysical, reservoir models and demonstrated our operational capacity. Afina-1x is a vertical well, we are confident that a horizontal well or other well completion options that maximise reservoir exposure in the fields would deliver much higher production rates. This provides an incredible platform for reaffirming commercial development options for the Cenomanian and Turonian reservoirs," said Kevin Okyere, chief executive officer of Springfield. 

The agreement allows Eni an exploration period of nine years. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Four new exploration blocks offshore Ivory Coast have been handed over to oil major Eni by the country's Ministry of Mines, Oil and Energy as per an acquisition agreement signed in Abidjan during SIREXE, the International Exhibition of Extractive and Energy Resources 

The agreement allows Eni an exploration period of nine years on the blocks CI-504, CI-526, CI-706 and CI-708. Covering a total area of about 5,720 sq kms with a water depth ranging between 1,000 and 3,500 m, these blocks add to the oil major's already-strong deepwater presence across the region, including in CI-101, CI-205, CI-401, CI-501, CI-801 and CI- 802. Of these, Baleine and Calao remain the company's biggest discoveries at a global scale. 

The partners have been in talks since early this year, when the President of Ivory Coast, Alassane Ouattara, and the CEO of Eni, Claudio Descalzi, met in Abidjan to discuss the company’s activities in the country, including the successful results of the exploration well Murene 1X on the Calao discovery. 

Boosting production 

Eni is increasingly focusing on boosting production from these sites, with the launch of Baleine Phase 2 set for this month, aiming to reach a total production count to 60,000 barrels of oil per day and 70 million cubic feet of associated gas (equivalent to 2 mn cu/m of associated gas). Once achieved, this will mark an increase to 150,000 bopd and 200 mn cu/ft of associated gas during Phase 3, currently under study. 

Interests in Ivory Coast sees growth, as Viridien announced in May two new multi-client 3D reimaging programmes from the region, CDI24 Phase I (3,120 sq km) and Phase II (6,610 sq km).

The results indicated good porosities. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Light oil and gas-condensate in high quality reservoir-bearing sands revealed itself from the Mopane-1A appraisal well (Well #3) in block PEL83 offshore Namibia as Galp, along with its partners NAMCOR and Custos, cored and logged the well following the end of drilling

The results indicated good porosities, high permeabilities, and high pressures, topped off with low oil viscosity characteristics, involving minimum CO2 and no H2S concentrations. This adds to the AVO-1 quality that also comprises the successful Mopane-1X (Well #1) and Mopane-2X (Well #2) findings. 

Successful appraisal 

“The quality and scale of the Mopane complex continue to be demonstrated with this successful appraisal by the Mopane-1A well. We look forward to the exploration and appraisal activities anticipated in 2025 to further unveil the potential of Mopane,” said Robert Bose, chief executive officer of Sintana.

Data from the appraisal well discoveries will be integrated once thorough analysis is completed. The next steps include E&A wells, and a high-resolution proprietary 3D seismic campaign set to start in December 2024. 

This appraisal well is the first of an up to four-well programme potentially consisting of two exploration wells and two appraisal wells. “The ongoing campaign at PEL 83, with additional wells to come, is part of the next chapter of progress on our world class portfolio at the heart of Namibia’s Orange Basin,” said Knowledge Katti, chairman and chief executive officer of Custos, and a director of Sintana. 

With the Mopane complex alone pointing towards an estimate of more than 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the field is considered an important commercial discovery.