Strong demand is still expected from the booming petrochemicals sector. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

Oil 2024, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual medium-term market report, forecasts that growth in global demand for oil will slow in the coming years as energy transitions advance, with a major supply surplus emerging this decade

The report forecasts that global oil demand, which including biofuels averaged just over 102mn bpd in 2023, will level off near 106mn bpd per day towards the end of this decade, with growth in demand peaking before 2030.

Speaking at a press briefing, Dr Fatih Birol, IEA executive director, highlighted three major drivers of the slowdown:

1. – Transportation – The increasing penetration of electrical vehicles (EV)s. in China, Europe, USA and increasingly the emerging markets, currently accounting for more than one in five car sales. Dr Birol noted the increasing cost competitiveness of electrical cars in China, the driver of EV car penetration. Ongoing fuel efficiency improvements are also a factor;
2. – Electricity generation – Many of the oil producers in the Middle East and North Africa, who currently use a significant proportion of oil to generate electricity, are shifting to renewables or natural gas for electricity generation;
3. – China – Most importantly, the expected slowdown in China’s economic growth to around 4% from just over 6% a year, given the country has accounted for around 60% of demand growth in the last 10 years.

While strong demand growth is expected from fast-growing economies in Asia, as well as from the aviation and booming petrochemicals sectors, this will not be enough to offset the above factors.

Surge in production capacity

At the same time, a surge in non-OPEC global oil production capacity, led by the USA and other producers in the Americas, such as Argentina, Brazil, Canada and Guyana, is expected to outstrip demand growth between now and 2030, with non-OPEC producers expected to account for three quarters of the expected increase to 2030, or 4.6mn bpd. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Iraq are expected to lead a 1.4 mn bpd rise in OPEC+ oil capacity.

Total supply capacity is forecast to rise by 6mn bpd to nearly 114mn bpd by 2030 – a staggering 8mn bpd above projected global demand, the report finds. There is also the prospect of OPEC+ rewinding production cuts from later this year. This would result in unprecedented levels of spare capacity over the forecast period, with major implications for oil markets – including for producer economies in OPEC and beyond, as well as for the US shale industry.

“Some producers are already making adjustments, with Saudi Arabia putting on hold planned oil capacity expansion to focus on gas, which is where we see the main demand this coming decade,” commented Toril Bosoni, the head of the IEA’s Oil Industry and Markets Division. at the press briefing.

“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade,” said Dr Birol, noting the consequences of an oversupply would be downward pressure on prices, with implications both for producers and consumers. “Oil companies may want to look at these supply and demand trends and make sure their business strategies and plans are in line with market realities,” he added.

According to the report, global refining capacity is on track to expand by 3.3mn bpd between 2023 and 2030, well below historical trends. However, this should be sufficient to meet demand for refined oil products during this period, given a concurrent surge in the supply of non-refined fuels such as biofuels and natural gas liquids (NGLs). This raises the prospect of refinery closures towards the end of the outlook period, as well as a slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027.

The new engine power plant can run on natural gas and 25 vol% hydrogen blends. (Image source: Wartsila)

Addressing the just transition ideology of Africa, technology group Wärtsilä has introduced a purely hydrogen-ready engine power plant

Guided by the IEA World Energy Outlook 2023 that predicts hydrogen consumption to reach 51 mt by 2050, Wärtsilä's launch establishes the importance of an energy mix. Sustainable fuels like hydrogen and natural gas are significant to balance the fluctuating renewable energy sources. 

Wartsila has been working towards ensuring energy mix since the last few years, when it announced the conversion of the heavy fuel-operated Bel-Air power plant in Dakar to LNG. 

The new engine power plant can run on natural gas and 25 vol% hydrogen blends.

Addressing energy security

Anders Lindberg, president, Wärtsilä Energy, said, “We will not meet global climate goals or fully decarbonise our power systems without flexible, zero-carbon power generation, which can quickly ramp up and down to support intermittent wind and solar.

“We must be realistic that natural gas will play a part in our power systems for years to come. Our fuel flexible engines can use natural gas today to provide flexibility and balancing, enabling renewable power to thrive. They can then be converted to run on hydrogen when it becomes readily available: future-proofing the journey to net zero.

“This is a major milestone for us as a company, and the energy transition more generally, as our hydrogen-ready engines will enable the 100% renewable power systems of tomorrow.”

The Wärtsilä 31 engine platform that is the driving force behind the hydrogen-ready power plant is designed for instant operation, synchronising with the grid within 30 seconds from start command.

Having completed more than 1 million running hours, with over 1,000 MW installed capacity globally, the platform offers unparalleled load following capabilities and high part load efficiency. Its fuel flexibility is hence capable of meeting present challenges of energy security. 

With hydrogen catching up at a rapid pace in Africa, the Wärtsilä 31 engine is all set to hit the markets next year, followed by delivery services from 2026. 

The combined Vivo Energy Group now has more than 3,900 service stations. (Image source: Engen)

Engen becomes part of Vivo Energy as the latter acquired 74% Engen share from PETRONAS

The transaction which began in February last year, came to a close with the securing of regulatory approvals and fulfilment of conditions precedent across the seven markets where Engen operates. 

With B-BBEE shareholder Phembani Group continuing to hold 21% interests in Engen, and expansion of another 5% employee share ownership programme for historically disadvantaged persons, the new strategic partnership results in pan-African energy championship. “Having been invested in Engen since 1999, we are excited to continue our involvement, partnering in a strategic relationship with Vivo Energy in the next phase of Engen’s growth as a key player in South Africa’s economy,” said Phuthuma Nhleko, chairman and co-founder of Phembani Group.

The combined Vivo Energy Group now has more than 3,900 service stations, and beyond 2 billion litres of storage capacity across 28 African markets. Business will go on as usual with the objective of delivering added value and benefits for customers and stakeholders.

Growing operations in South Africa

In a joint statement, Stan Mittelman, CEO of the Vivo Energy Group, and Seelan Naidoo, managing director and CEO of Engen, said, “We are delighted to conclude the transaction, and will now work together to take the ‘best of both’ from Engen and Vivo Energy, positioning the combined organisation well for growth and success in the years to come.”

Mittelman and Naidoo said, “As part of the transaction, Vivo Energy has committed to invest a significant amount of capital expenditure to maintain and grow Engen’s operations in South Africa, ensuring a modern and efficient business, for the benefit of the South African population. We have also committed to major investments in renewable solar power generation projects to help transform the economy, while supporting a just energy transition for the country.”

Chris Bake, chairman of Vivo Energy, said, “I would like to thank PETRONAS for its stewardship of Engen over the last 25+ years. Together with the Phembani Group, they have grown Engen into a valuable corporate citizen. The combination of Vivo Energy and Engen to create a pan-African champion not only benefits customers in South Africa and across the continent, but also sets up the new Group to achieve its vision to be Africa’s leading and most respected energy business.”

Following submissions, a competitive bidding process will lead to the selection of preferred and alternative suppliers. (Image source: African Energy Chamber)

Halliburton is inviting local companies to submit an expression of interest (EOI) for the supply of goods and services across the oil and gas industry, and African service providers are not missing the opportunity

The EOI has several categories supporting oil and gas operations, such as machine repair and operation tools; oil, lubricants and tyers; lifting materials and accessories; welding and fabrication; calibration, certification and fuel, to mention a few. 

Following submissions, a competitive bidding process will lead to the selection of preferred and alternative suppliers. 

Besides advancing local interests and capabilities, the initiative strengthens supplier diversity as well, contributing to economic growth and market expansion.

Strong presence in Africa

Halliburton has a strong presence in Africa.

In Namibia, Halliburton won a deepwater multi-well construction contract in 2024 for Block 2914AHalliburton won a deepwater multi-well construction contract in 2024 for Block 2914A, which entails the construction of exploration and appraisal wells from Q4, 2024.

In March 2023, Halliburton won a US$1.4bn contract with Honeywell to develop oilfields and refinery for the Libyan National Oil Corporation.

Halliburton secured nine contracts by Woodside Energy for offshore oil and gas activities in Senegal, where the Sangomar Oilfield Development is all set to start production in the coming weeks.

In Nigeria, Halliburton won a US$300mn deal with Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria for a large-scale offshore gas project.

“While various countries have already implemented local content policies that support local participation in oil and gas developments, many nascent producers have yet to establish the relevant local content regulation. Yet, companies such as Halliburton are proving that international service providers, project developers and investors can do a lot without a local content law. Halliburton is not only giving opportunities to local companies but is laying the foundation for a vibrant oil and gas landscape in Africa,” said NJ Ayuk, executive chairman of the African Energy Chamber.